Yes, I believe your thinking on this is correct, and it seems to be where the consensus is anyway (not in the media, or the average person, but among experts):

Yes, I believe your thinking on this is correct, and it seems to be where the consensus is anyway (not in the media, or the average person, but among experts): transmission is concentrated in indoor activities with sustained exposure without masks. I would add to your list that contact-based transmission, in contrast the the obsession over surface sanitizing procedures, is not a meaningful transmission risk. Derek Thompson called it "hygiene theater", similar to the post-9/11 security theater.