4 ms·

If the risks are quite low for the vast majority of people, then how come COVID-19 can be seen "from space" i.e. as excess deaths in death statistics.

by mantap 6y ago

_-___________-_ 6y ago
How does the existence of some excess death (mostly among at-risk people) disagree with the risk being quite low for the vast majority of people? I don't see how these things cannot coexist.
henrikschroder 6y ago
There is excess death due to influenza every year. The number of dead due to covid-19 is not some kind of crazy anomaly that's going to stick out in the statistics. In no-good zombie-apocalypse Sweden, the total deaths/capita for 2020 is probably going to be above the 5-year average, but below the 10-year average and below the death rate of 2012. Here's how the excess mortality of 2020 compares to the last 40 years of mortality in Germany, Sweden, France, and Belgium: https://medium.com/@FrankfurtZack/unprecedented-overall-mortality-in-sweden-and-other-european-countries-cd8fcdd6174a https://medium.com/@FrankfurtZack/unprecedented-overall-mort... If you didn't know about it, you wouldn't think anything special at all happened in 2020, just by looking at the statistics.
- WalterGR 6y ago
  There is excess death due to influenza every year. Right. And the flu deaths will be on top of the COVID deaths. The number of dead due to covid-19 is not some kind of crazy anomaly that's going to stick out in the statistics. Yes it is. I don't know who @FrankfurtZack is beyond how he describes himself: "armchair virologist. hobbyvirologe, hobbystaatsepidemiologe". He has one post on Medium and that's it. Here are some information sources that are more trustworthy. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deat... https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03/measuring-excess-mortality-gives-clearer-picture-pandemics-true-burden/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03/measuring-excess-mortali... (Boston Globe) https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking... The CDC link in particular is good because the first graph you come across when you scroll down shows deaths going back to 2017, so you can compare COVID excess deaths with H1N1 excess deaths.
  - _-___________-_ 6y ago
    "going back to 2017" is a very short window. The European excess mortality data I've seen does show COVID as a fairly significant spike in a 5-year context, but even just "zooming out" to 10 years makes it fairly insignificant.
    - WalterGR 6y ago
      Okay, but the above is US data. It’s a significant spike given the time window shown. Also, reputable link to the European data you refer to?

If the risks are quite low for the vast majority of people, then how come COVID-19 can be seen "from space" i.e. as excess deaths in death statistics.

by mantap 6y ago

If the risks are quite low for the vast majority of people, then how come COVID-19 can be seen "from space" i.e. as excess deaths in death statistics.

_-___________-_ 6y ago

How does the existence of some excess death (mostly among at-risk people) disagree with the risk being quite low for the vast majority of people? I don't see how these things cannot coexist.

henrikschroder 6y ago

There is excess death due to influenza every year. The number of dead due to covid-19 is not some kind of crazy anomaly that's going to stick out in the statistics. In no-good zombie-apocalypse Sweden, the total deaths/capita for 2020 is probably going to be above the 5-year average, but below the 10-year average and below the death rate of 2012. Here's how the excess mortality of 2020 compares to the last 40 years of mortality in Germany, Sweden, France, and Belgium: https://medium.com/@FrankfurtZack/unprecedented-overall-mortality-in-sweden-and-other-european-countries-cd8fcdd6174a https://medium.com/@FrankfurtZack/unprecedented-overall-mort... If you didn't know about it, you wouldn't think anything special at all happened in 2020, just by looking at the statistics.

WalterGR 6y ago
There is excess death due to influenza every year. Right. And the flu deaths will be on top of the COVID deaths. The number of dead due to covid-19 is not some kind of crazy anomaly that's going to stick out in the statistics. Yes it is. I don't know who @FrankfurtZack is beyond how he describes himself: "armchair virologist. hobbyvirologe, hobbystaatsepidemiologe". He has one post on Medium and that's it. Here are some information sources that are more trustworthy. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deat... https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03/measuring-excess-mortality-gives-clearer-picture-pandemics-true-burden/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03/measuring-excess-mortali... (Boston Globe) https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking... The CDC link in particular is good because the first graph you come across when you scroll down shows deaths going back to 2017, so you can compare COVID excess deaths with H1N1 excess deaths.
- _-___________-_ 6y ago
  "going back to 2017" is a very short window. The European excess mortality data I've seen does show COVID as a fairly significant spike in a 5-year context, but even just "zooming out" to 10 years makes it fairly insignificant.
  - WalterGR 6y ago
    Okay, but the above is US data. It’s a significant spike given the time window shown. Also, reputable link to the European data you refer to?