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There must be a reason then that these drones don’t feature in death tallies? Death by friendly fire far far exceeds lethality of these drones worldwide. They’

There must be a reason then that these drones don’t feature in death tallies? Death by friendly fire far far exceeds lethality of these drones worldwide. They’ve been in documented use over 7 years at this point. Why are they less effective than Facebook posts at killing people?

dogma1138 6y ago
Quite likely because the logistics aren’t there yet and even more so because actual weapons are available everywhere. Drones still require someone to turn them into weapons going after bomb makers is an extremely effective strategy because while there are a million guides on the internet on how to make an IED or a suicide vest the actual amount of people capable of making them is extremely small the world isn’t HN.
- CraigJPerry 6y ago
  What do you mean the logistics aren’t there yet? Drones are used daily by bad guys for recon purposes. These bad guys are groups with caches of weapons and skilled bomb makers in their numbers. Why in 7 years havent They just put the two together? What in our arm chair analysis are we overlooking?
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    I think you greatly over estimate the number of competent bomb makers considering just how effective taking them out has been. Much of the military equipment in circulation is decades old, you have RPGs from the 70’s being in use. The logistics for drones isn’t there yet, the human capital isn’t there yet either I would give it 5-10 more years till these drones will be prevalent in nearly every conflict.
    - CraigJPerry 6y ago
      car bombs are an unfortunately regular thing in this world (e.g. Azaz last month). Along with suicide vest wearers (Afghanistan most recently) and of course the IEDs designed to avoid detection and jamming in Iraq. In each of these theatres we have documented heavy use of drones for recon. The problem is nothing to do with logistics or skillset. Hobby grade drones (even the heavy lift types which can manage 20kg payload) are not viable weapons. Their payload is too small, their accuracy too imprecise in practice and the economics of a stolen car’s payload being 1000x that of a medium-large hobby drone renders these a plot line in a movie rather than a real thing. Age of military equipment has nothing to do with anything.
throwaway0a5e 6y ago
Hand grenade toting drones more or less came of age during the ISIS shenanigans and Syrian civil war. Both those conflicts are/were hot enough and had enough state resources pumped in that you had guys taking pot shots at each other with AGTMs. Basically the other sources of casualties were too much background noise for drones to be noteworthy. When a cooler conflict comes around, think whatever the 2020s, 2030s equivalent of the troubles is, drones will certainly rack up a much greater market share of the casualties by virtue of the lower background noise. They just aren't that useful in a "low but still tons of real armaments around for use" intensity conflict.
- CraigJPerry 6y ago
  The Iranians dropped hand grenades from hobby grade remote control planes in the 80s. This idea is definitely not new. It just doesn’t work very well.

dogma1138 6y ago

Quite likely because the logistics aren’t there yet and even more so because actual weapons are available everywhere. Drones still require someone to turn them into weapons going after bomb makers is an extremely effective strategy because while there are a million guides on the internet on how to make an IED or a suicide vest the actual amount of people capable of making them is extremely small the world isn’t HN.

CraigJPerry 6y ago
What do you mean the logistics aren’t there yet? Drones are used daily by bad guys for recon purposes. These bad guys are groups with caches of weapons and skilled bomb makers in their numbers. Why in 7 years havent They just put the two together? What in our arm chair analysis are we overlooking?
- dogma1138 6y ago
  I think you greatly over estimate the number of competent bomb makers considering just how effective taking them out has been. Much of the military equipment in circulation is decades old, you have RPGs from the 70’s being in use. The logistics for drones isn’t there yet, the human capital isn’t there yet either I would give it 5-10 more years till these drones will be prevalent in nearly every conflict.
  - CraigJPerry 6y ago
    car bombs are an unfortunately regular thing in this world (e.g. Azaz last month). Along with suicide vest wearers (Afghanistan most recently) and of course the IEDs designed to avoid detection and jamming in Iraq. In each of these theatres we have documented heavy use of drones for recon. The problem is nothing to do with logistics or skillset. Hobby grade drones (even the heavy lift types which can manage 20kg payload) are not viable weapons. Their payload is too small, their accuracy too imprecise in practice and the economics of a stolen car’s payload being 1000x that of a medium-large hobby drone renders these a plot line in a movie rather than a real thing. Age of military equipment has nothing to do with anything.

throwaway0a5e 6y ago

Hand grenade toting drones more or less came of age during the ISIS shenanigans and Syrian civil war. Both those conflicts are/were hot enough and had enough state resources pumped in that you had guys taking pot shots at each other with AGTMs. Basically the other sources of casualties were too much background noise for drones to be noteworthy. When a cooler conflict comes around, think whatever the 2020s, 2030s equivalent of the troubles is, drones will certainly rack up a much greater market share of the casualties by virtue of the lower background noise. They just aren't that useful in a "low but still tons of real armaments around for use" intensity conflict.

CraigJPerry 6y ago
The Iranians dropped hand grenades from hobby grade remote control planes in the 80s. This idea is definitely not new. It just doesn’t work very well.