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These numbers are quite meaningless without the counterfactuals how many deaths were there by comparison? I don't doubt your point, just looking for magnitude

by waheoo 6y ago

These numbers are quite meaningless without the counterfactuals how many deaths were there by comparison? I don't doubt your point, just looking for magnitude here.

Jedd 6y ago
> These numbers are quite meaningless without the counterfactuals how many deaths were there by comparison? Parent probably should have quoted the figures, but they're frequently cited (so somewhat assumed, I guess) in such discussions, and very easy to find on the net. From [0] I see: "1.13 deaths per 100 million miles traveled." Naive scaling to 3 billion, that'd be ~34 deaths in non-Tesla Autopilot driving. Parent is correct that humans are poor at risk management. Another common refrain when talking about auto-driving technology is that it doesn't need to be perfect -- just better than humans. And that's a much lower bar. [0] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...
- WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
  It's stupid to use a benchmark on a fancy premium vehicle versus the entire market. Joe Schmuck who didn't replace his tires and was driving home after a 12 hour shift when his brakes failed and he died counts as much as a guy in a luxury vehicle that drives under a semi.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    The actuarial data (lifetime income potential, etc) that compensation claims are based off of that determine the worth of human life says no. Joe Schmuck should get the same safety features. To do so, you must drive down per unit costs through scale. I bought our Teslas because expensive cars need to get sold to pay for cheaper cars.
  - Jedd 6y ago
    > It's stupid to ... Thanks - this kind of friendly and helpful advice is the only way I'll learn. > Joe Schmuck who didn't replace his tires and was driving home after a 12 hour shift when his brakes failed and he died counts as much as a guy in a luxury vehicle that drives under a semi. I can't work out what point you're trying to make here, other than perhaps implying that the statistics I cited, from the source I cited, don't accurately represent your opinion about some subset of the driving population. GP wanted, but could not look for, comparative figures. These were provided. If you want to argue the legitimacy of them, let's do that - show me (other) numbers.
- shubb 6y ago
  That stuff, about 6% of deaths occur on the freeway versus 20% of miles are on the freeway. The majority of autopilot is gonna be in freeway or similar roads so let's call that 10 deaths for every Tesla death. Anecdotally tesla put a lot of effort into making a car with great crash protection, so if we are evaluating only the autopilot then comparing tesla's death rate to a 1990s fiat or a car people buy to drive badly like an impreza doesn't seem right. With that said, leading causes of freeway accidents are, falling asleep, bad lane following, and drivers failing to realise the traffic ahead has stopped. These are all about human inability to stay focused. So we shouldn't assume that in a simplified environment like a freeway, autopilot is going to lose up humans.
  - Jedd 6y ago
    > That stuff, about 6% of deaths occur on the freeway versus 20% of miles are on the freeway. The majority of autopilot is gonna be in freeway or similar roads so let's call that 10 deaths for every Tesla death. Raw numbers are 34 / 3b in non-Autopilot, and 6 / 3b in Autopilot - so that's 5.7:1 ratio. I'm not 100% clear on how you're arriving at 10:1 ? > Anecdotally tesla put a lot of effort into making a car with great crash protection, so if we are evaluating only the autopilot then comparing tesla's death rate to a 1990s fiat or a car people buy to drive badly like an impreza doesn't seem right. I guess we'd have to review numbers of 1990's fiats, and indeed every other car on the road, the crash safety profile, and compare -- but this seems onerous. The fact that the Tesla vehicles are sold as a whole package - autopilot engineered around capabilities of the car, including withstanding crash scenarios - could in good faith be compared with every other car (without analysing them all in detail) using vanilla statistics on crash events, yes?

by waheoo 6y ago

These numbers are quite meaningless without the counterfactuals how many deaths were there by comparison? I don't doubt your point, just looking for magnitude here.

Jedd 6y ago

> These numbers are quite meaningless without the counterfactuals how many deaths were there by comparison? Parent probably should have quoted the figures, but they're frequently cited (so somewhat assumed, I guess) in such discussions, and very easy to find on the net. From [0] I see: "1.13 deaths per 100 million miles traveled." Naive scaling to 3 billion, that'd be ~34 deaths in non-Tesla Autopilot driving. Parent is correct that humans are poor at risk management. Another common refrain when talking about auto-driving technology is that it doesn't need to be perfect -- just better than humans. And that's a much lower bar. [0] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...

WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
It's stupid to use a benchmark on a fancy premium vehicle versus the entire market. Joe Schmuck who didn't replace his tires and was driving home after a 12 hour shift when his brakes failed and he died counts as much as a guy in a luxury vehicle that drives under a semi.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  The actuarial data (lifetime income potential, etc) that compensation claims are based off of that determine the worth of human life says no. Joe Schmuck should get the same safety features. To do so, you must drive down per unit costs through scale. I bought our Teslas because expensive cars need to get sold to pay for cheaper cars.
- Jedd 6y ago
  > It's stupid to ... Thanks - this kind of friendly and helpful advice is the only way I'll learn. > Joe Schmuck who didn't replace his tires and was driving home after a 12 hour shift when his brakes failed and he died counts as much as a guy in a luxury vehicle that drives under a semi. I can't work out what point you're trying to make here, other than perhaps implying that the statistics I cited, from the source I cited, don't accurately represent your opinion about some subset of the driving population. GP wanted, but could not look for, comparative figures. These were provided. If you want to argue the legitimacy of them, let's do that - show me (other) numbers.
shubb 6y ago
That stuff, about 6% of deaths occur on the freeway versus 20% of miles are on the freeway. The majority of autopilot is gonna be in freeway or similar roads so let's call that 10 deaths for every Tesla death. Anecdotally tesla put a lot of effort into making a car with great crash protection, so if we are evaluating only the autopilot then comparing tesla's death rate to a 1990s fiat or a car people buy to drive badly like an impreza doesn't seem right. With that said, leading causes of freeway accidents are, falling asleep, bad lane following, and drivers failing to realise the traffic ahead has stopped. These are all about human inability to stay focused. So we shouldn't assume that in a simplified environment like a freeway, autopilot is going to lose up humans.
- Jedd 6y ago
  > That stuff, about 6% of deaths occur on the freeway versus 20% of miles are on the freeway. The majority of autopilot is gonna be in freeway or similar roads so let's call that 10 deaths for every Tesla death. Raw numbers are 34 / 3b in non-Autopilot, and 6 / 3b in Autopilot - so that's 5.7:1 ratio. I'm not 100% clear on how you're arriving at 10:1 ? > Anecdotally tesla put a lot of effort into making a car with great crash protection, so if we are evaluating only the autopilot then comparing tesla's death rate to a 1990s fiat or a car people buy to drive badly like an impreza doesn't seem right. I guess we'd have to review numbers of 1990's fiats, and indeed every other car on the road, the crash safety profile, and compare -- but this seems onerous. The fact that the Tesla vehicles are sold as a whole package - autopilot engineered around capabilities of the car, including withstanding crash scenarios - could in good faith be compared with every other car (without analysing them all in detail) using vanilla statistics on crash events, yes?