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Is Big Oil really in trouble? Or is it just the aspiration of so many hoping Big Oil is in trouble? EVs are starting to sell in some volume in some locations.

Is Big Oil really in trouble? Or is it just the aspiration of so many hoping Big Oil is in trouble? EVs are starting to sell in some volume in some locations. Exxon Mobil has just been replaced on the S&P 500. CV19 work from home is limiting some people’s personal direct use of liquid energy. But it wouldn’t be embellishment to say we die without liquid energy. If I had to make one single bet with a 5-10 year time horizon it would be going long on Big Oil. Exxon Mobil’s specifically, due to it having the largest war chest, proven reserves in stable countries, and extraction technology. I look forward to a post-petroleum economy, but we aren’t going to get there today, tomorrow, or next week.

aliswe 6y ago
Haven't read the article yet, but it's relieving to see that someone else other than me have identified the phenomenon: "Or is it just the aspiration of so many hoping Big Oil is in trouble?" Newspaper writers too often impose their own ideals on observations to exaggerate or sometimes even "fabricate" trends. Unfortunately, I fail to find any examples off the top of my head. But there, I've said it anyway.
- chriselles 6y ago
  I know Warren Buffett is catching heat lately for his poor investment returns. But it's worth looking at his recent investments in 2019 in energy and gold mining. He didn't buy them for 12+ months, he bought them for 12+ years. I genuinely look forward to a post-petroleum economy, but it's going to take a long time to get there. The extreme volatility from CV19 shockwaves, including short-term energy price collapse, is going to have consequences. Some of those consequences are likely to include increased instability in peripheral energy producing nations with high production costs. Even Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran will be suffering quite considerably from the decline in energy prices. It may be 10x in peripheral energy production dependent nations. That increased risk of instability could lead to conflict and supply contraction and rising energy prices(over time). It's worth looking at the 80's Oil Glut and the impact it had on the world. The Soviet Union fell and the First Iraq War both occurred in the wake of the Oil Glut as both the Soviet Union and Saddam's Iraq were facing severe economic crisis as a direct result of the glut. I wrote a piece on it that got published: https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/223-contagion-covid-19s-impact-on-operational-environment-part-1/?doing_wp_cron=1598822358.2033779621124267578125 https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/223-contagion-covid-19s-i...
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    >He didn't buy them for 12+ months, he bought them for 12+ years He just turned 90, didn't he? A standard actuarial table says his life expectancy is 4 years or so. There is absolutely nothing he can do any more as an investor, that will meaningfully impact his life, so his decisions mean nothing.
    - chriselles 6y ago
      Well, he is investing on behalf of his Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.
      - perl4ever 6y ago
        Yes, of course. I'm saying there are no consequences for him, positive or negative. He'll never know what the outcome is of anything long term. Buying gold and energy has no more weight, for him, than just expressing an opinion. He not only can't lose anything, but he can't even be embarrassed, in the long run.

aliswe 6y ago

Haven't read the article yet, but it's relieving to see that someone else other than me have identified the phenomenon: "Or is it just the aspiration of so many hoping Big Oil is in trouble?" Newspaper writers too often impose their own ideals on observations to exaggerate or sometimes even "fabricate" trends. Unfortunately, I fail to find any examples off the top of my head. But there, I've said it anyway.

chriselles 6y ago
I know Warren Buffett is catching heat lately for his poor investment returns. But it's worth looking at his recent investments in 2019 in energy and gold mining. He didn't buy them for 12+ months, he bought them for 12+ years. I genuinely look forward to a post-petroleum economy, but it's going to take a long time to get there. The extreme volatility from CV19 shockwaves, including short-term energy price collapse, is going to have consequences. Some of those consequences are likely to include increased instability in peripheral energy producing nations with high production costs. Even Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran will be suffering quite considerably from the decline in energy prices. It may be 10x in peripheral energy production dependent nations. That increased risk of instability could lead to conflict and supply contraction and rising energy prices(over time). It's worth looking at the 80's Oil Glut and the impact it had on the world. The Soviet Union fell and the First Iraq War both occurred in the wake of the Oil Glut as both the Soviet Union and Saddam's Iraq were facing severe economic crisis as a direct result of the glut. I wrote a piece on it that got published: https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/223-contagion-covid-19s-impact-on-operational-environment-part-1/?doing_wp_cron=1598822358.2033779621124267578125 https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/223-contagion-covid-19s-i...
- perl4ever 6y ago
  >He didn't buy them for 12+ months, he bought them for 12+ years He just turned 90, didn't he? A standard actuarial table says his life expectancy is 4 years or so. There is absolutely nothing he can do any more as an investor, that will meaningfully impact his life, so his decisions mean nothing.
  - chriselles 6y ago
    Well, he is investing on behalf of his Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      Yes, of course. I'm saying there are no consequences for him, positive or negative. He'll never know what the outcome is of anything long term. Buying gold and energy has no more weight, for him, than just expressing an opinion. He not only can't lose anything, but he can't even be embarrassed, in the long run.