5 ms·
> As long as the fertility rate is less than 2 children/woman, the total population will still converge even if no one dies. Converge to what? How?
by yesbabyyes 6y ago
> As long as the fertility rate is less than 2 children/woman, the total population will still converge even if no one dies.
Converge to what? How?
- ben_w 6y agoI think they mean the infinite sequence of Σ (generation_n) always converges to some finite number when generation_(n+1) = k * generation_n has k < 1, which is equivalent to <2 immortal children per woman. I don’t think that’s a good model, as people who want more offspring will out-reproduce those who don’t, but that’s an argument for another time.
- s7atic 6y ago> I don’t think that’s a good model, as people who want more offspring will out-reproduce those who don’t, but that’s an argument for another time. This argument assumes the offspring behaves in the same way as their parents. I don't see that necessarily being true. Even if that is the case, there are legislative solutions.
- reducesuffering 6y agoTo population 0. 1.9 children / woman is a .95 multiplier on human population per generation, like a -5% interest rate. Assuming birth rate is constant < 2, it converges to 0.
- sokoloff 6y agoNot "if no one dies" which was part of GGP's claim.
- reducesuffering 6y agoCorrect, my mistake. Other comments with summations are the accurate convergence then.