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Not necessarily. For the prices to decrease, someone has to have to rent or sell. Many investors don't have such a need; especially in the commercial space.

by cnst 6y ago

Not necessarily. For the prices to decrease, someone has to have to rent or sell. Many investors don't have such a need; especially in the commercial space. I would imagine companies like WeWork may actually come out ahead here; because if your own company doesn't provide you with a place to work away from home, you might still need an office somewhere.

ttul 6y ago
When my office lease is up next year, we will likely not renew. WeWork or similar is the likely new “office”.
trimbo 6y ago
> Many investors don't have such a need; especially in the commercial space. According to [1], as of 2015, 77% of commercial real estate is owned by private equity and REITs. Those types of investments primarily generate returns via dividends that come from rent. So it seems like most investors can't let them sit empty? [1] - https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-commercial-real-estate-3305914#:~:text=It%20stated%20that%20REITs%20own,equity%2C%20which%20owns%2043.7%20percent https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-commercial-real-estate-33....
- cnst 6y ago
  Commercial real-estate leases are often much longer than residential, so, they won't be as affected as fast. As a result, there's also a whole bunch of subleasing going on in commercial RE, hence, it may end up being a whole chain of random third-parties taking the loss for the owners of the buildings (e.g., companies that need to move out of their office after outgrowing it, etc). Surprisingly, this might make an even better argument for the come-back of WeWork -- their whole model from the start was to makeover the buildings abandoned by the tenants. Likewise, it may not affect the sale price at all, because noone would want to tank their own REITs, even if the market itself is stale -- the owners have a vested interest in keeping the bubble afloat.
adrianmonk 6y ago
Some people do have a need, and some people don't. The people who do have a need will put their properties on the market. Their prices will undercut everyone else's. Anyone who was thinking of selling but doesn't urgently need to will delay until it's not so much of a buyer's market. But this means there will be a buildup in the number of people who have been waiting to sell. So prices will recover slowly because it will be necessary to chew through this backlog. But, as in any downturn, there are people who are sitting on cash and looking for bargains. They will buy up some of what's for sale. (Downturns always create chaos, and there are people who are financially ruined and other people who multiply their wealth dramatically.)

by cnst 6y ago

ttul 6y ago

When my office lease is up next year, we will likely not renew. WeWork or similar is the likely new “office”.

trimbo 6y ago

> Many investors don't have such a need; especially in the commercial space. According to [1], as of 2015, 77% of commercial real estate is owned by private equity and REITs. Those types of investments primarily generate returns via dividends that come from rent. So it seems like most investors can't let them sit empty? [1] - https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-commercial-real-estate-3305914#:~:text=It%20stated%20that%20REITs%20own,equity%2C%20which%20owns%2043.7%20percent https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-commercial-real-estate-33....

cnst 6y ago
Commercial real-estate leases are often much longer than residential, so, they won't be as affected as fast. As a result, there's also a whole bunch of subleasing going on in commercial RE, hence, it may end up being a whole chain of random third-parties taking the loss for the owners of the buildings (e.g., companies that need to move out of their office after outgrowing it, etc). Surprisingly, this might make an even better argument for the come-back of WeWork -- their whole model from the start was to makeover the buildings abandoned by the tenants. Likewise, it may not affect the sale price at all, because noone would want to tank their own REITs, even if the market itself is stale -- the owners have a vested interest in keeping the bubble afloat.

adrianmonk 6y ago

Some people do have a need, and some people don't. The people who do have a need will put their properties on the market. Their prices will undercut everyone else's. Anyone who was thinking of selling but doesn't urgently need to will delay until it's not so much of a buyer's market. But this means there will be a buildup in the number of people who have been waiting to sell. So prices will recover slowly because it will be necessary to chew through this backlog. But, as in any downturn, there are people who are sitting on cash and looking for bargains. They will buy up some of what's for sale. (Downturns always create chaos, and there are people who are financially ruined and other people who multiply their wealth dramatically.)