11 ms·

What can 6,000 electric vehicles tell us about EV battery health?

109 points by Breadmaker 6y ago

ArkVark 6y ago
It looks to me like EVs are completely ready for prime-time, and the only thing holding them back is the inertia/greed of major manufacturers (who cannot sell spare parts or expensive maintenance regimes for them as easily). Its just a shame that Tesla doesn't have a smaller car, the Model 3 is huge.
- ericvanular 6y ago
  EVs themselves are ready, the infrastructure is still a limiting factor. We need to keep working until range anxiety isn't an issue
  - ianai 6y ago
    I’m hoping society gets off its laurels and seriously invests in infrastructure ASAP. I also wish someone was looking for work for the displaced workers from electrification. I did have an idea - “Electrification as a service.” But you’d probably have to be Tesla to go down that path.
  - riffraff 6y ago
    Not just range anxiety, I literally wouldn't know where to charge my electric car since I live in a city and have neither my own garden nor a garage, I would have to put some cable out of my window across the street. There are a few charging stations around my neighborhood but there are a ton more cars.
    - mprovost 6y ago
      Here in London people do run cables out of their windows (or at least from their house) to cars parked on the street. The more considerate ones will use a safety cover but I also just see cables running out of houses across the footpath to an EV.
    - qmarchi 6y ago
      I have the same situation, I can't charge it at my apartment. Usually, I end up just spending ~40 minutes at the local KIA dealership that has a level 3 charger. If I had access to the office, I'd end up charging there as well.
    - wrkronmiller 6y ago
      Same problem in Manhattan. An electric car would be great for quick trips to nearby mountains for snowboarding/hiking, but finding _any_ parking spot near home can be a nightmare, let alone having to find one near one of the few charging stations we have.
      - toomuchtodo 6y ago
        Don’t own a car in Manhattan? One can always rent an EV for road trips.
    - arrosenberg 6y ago
      In my apartment complex the electric utility installed about three dozen charging stations (which is massively overbuilt for how many electrics there are). It probably makes the most sense for the local utility to wire up any large parking structures and some percentage of street parking. Suburbanites can install a car charger on their property, and is not a massive expense. Also, most-if-not-all electrics can charge over 110v, it just takes forever.
    - ClumsyPilot 6y ago
      You are literally confirming his point - we need charging stations at all parking spots. If you own the parking spot, you can usually install a car charger.
      - twblalock 6y ago
        > If you own the parking spot, you can usually install a car charger. That's not always the case. Even in Silicon Valley, where electric cars are popular, a lot of condo HOAs will not allow chargers to be installed. They require upgrading the electrical infrastructure of the property in some cases -- most buildings cannot handle installing 10 or 20 chargers, which might all be in use at the same time. As a matter of scale, it's very different from installing a charger or two in the garage of a house. Of course, even if that problem went away, that would still only solve the problem for people who own their parking spaces. What are renters supposed to do? Until the infrastructure problem is solved, electric cars only really make sense for homeowners.
        ClumsyPilot 6y ago
        Yup, it needs to be city wide and nationsl effort.
    - dawnerd 6y ago
      Plugshare can help with that.
    - WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
      This was my issue as well until I had a home. Work had two charging spots for a 25 story building (13 story parking structure). To be honest, the spots are work were often used only by people needing to charge but I would always be scared of forgetting and making someone else's day worse.
    - theshrike79 6y ago
      There is, literally, an app for that. Dozens in fact. Plugshare and A Better Route Planner are the least bad ones. Also many cars have a built-in POI list for charging points.
  - _ph_ 6y ago
    Considering how quickly Tesla built up an infrastructure without having much money, it should not be a huge task given the money the large companies even spend for advertising only.
  - beezle 6y ago
    It is not just range anxiety. Most people do not want to wait the length of time it takes to charge up. And IIRC, 'fast charge' has very negative effects on battery life. And nobody can bring you a container of electrons if you do run out of juice on the road.
    - burstmode 6y ago
      In Germany, they are working on "containers of electrons": https://www.inside-digital.de/news/hyundai-adac-mobile-charger-hilfe-fuer-elektroautos-ohne-energie https://www.inside-digital.de/news/hyundai-adac-mobile-charg...
      - beezle 6y ago
        That is interesting but seems like it would be impractical from a business perspective. Unless I misunderstand the translation, it could only charge one, maybe two vehicles, enough to (hopefully) make it to a charging station. A regular tow truck/wrecker can carry 20 gallons of gas in just 2-4 containers to provide 10 cars 2 gallons each, probably good for 50-60 miles in most vehicles.
    - dawnerd 6y ago
      Most people won’t be waiting for a charge since you do it over night and have what you need each morning. DC fast charging can be bad but it depends on a lot of factors - it’s also a lot faster than people think. Often your car will be charged enough before you have time to eat a quick snack or use the restroom. There’s also this misconception that you have to charge all the way up. Doing so will do more long term damage to your pack and take forever the higher the SoC.
    - theshrike79 6y ago
      The Chinese auto maker NIO already has battery swap stations and a service that will drive a charger to your location with a container of electrons and charge your car. Fully Charged on YouTube had a video on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTsrDpsYHrw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTsrDpsYHrw
  - jillesvangurp 6y ago
    I think range anxiety is more of a psychological/imaginary disorder than a technical challenge. I come from the Netherlands. Most EVs there have a range that would put you way past its borders no matter where you are in the country. Even the cheap & shitty ones. This is of course not something most people do very often in any case. So, you'd expect range anxiety to be less of a concern in the Netherlands. It's not. People are somehow really dreading having to (predictably) stop for a 45 minute charging stop in the rare case they actually do have their trip exceed the maximum range (again, unlikely if you leave on a full charge and don't plan to leave the country). It will tell you when you step into the car what your range is and you can plan right then and there where to stop for lunch/coffee. Most EV drivers do exactly that. Problem solved. ICE car drivers don't do that and typically just have unreliable data instead. You might have 70 km of range or 20. Hard to tell when the needle is close to 0. You might be going up hill or downhill and that might affect what the needle says. It doesn't even indicate range, just fuel volume. So, premature/redundant fuel stops are probably more common than running out of fuel, or indeed battery. By the time you run out of battery, your car will have been drawing your attention to that for quite some time. So, you'd be right to feel anxious about that happening to you because you'd end up looking like the fool you are. Most drivers take the annoying planned charging stop over that some tens of miles before they'd run out. It's more a case of range annoyance than anxiety. In the end everything has a price and if you can afford to fill up your gas guzzling SUV to burn way more fuel than you'd strictly need to get from A to B, that probably has more to do with other forms of anxiety than with the actual range of the car.
    - everdrive 6y ago
      It reminds me a bit of (some) people who think they need a truck. We were going to buy a truck for our (very small) farm, but when we really sat down and thought about the amount of times we'd use it, the number turned out to be 0-3 times a year. In this situation it makes sense to rent, and most of the time, our tiny subcompact does 100% of what we need a car to do. For those few times I may really need a truck, I can probably rent one, or find some other accommodation. Range anxiety is the same -- most of the time, people drive between home and work. For most people, this fits in the range for an electric. If you really want to drive across the country, you can just rent a car, and this will be much cheaper than owning an ICE for how often you'll actually need to do it. If you're lucky enough to have the space and money, and need two cars in the first place, then it makes sense for one to be electric: the one driven most often, and then the ICE vehicle for when electric is not appropriate.
- ape4 6y ago
  Small Tesla seems to be in the works. https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/tesla-small-electric-hatchback-elon-musk-designed-germany/ https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/tesla-small-electric-hatchbac...
- nicbou 6y ago
  I don't care about electric cars, but I care about electric motorcycles. As a long range traveler, there are a few issues that are left unaddressed: * My bike has a 500 kilometre range, which is about the maximum I'll ride in a day. Electric bikes have a smaller range than what I usually cover in a day. On the highway, the range drops so much that I'd need to take an extended lunch to finish my journey. * I can extend my range by 200-300km by carrying extra fuel. This is not possible with electric cars. * I can fuel up in 5 minutes. Refuelling does not dictate my schedule. * I don't need to find a gas station that's within walking distance of my hotel (I have two heavy boxes to schlep around). Refuelling does not dictate where I can sleep. * If I run out of fuel, I can ask someone to bring some from a gas station. I don't need to tow the car. * I can't begin to imagine the logistics of finding a convenient power outlet everywhere I stop.
  - newsclues 6y ago
    EV bikes with solar panels offer something gas cannot.
    - nicbou 6y ago
      What exactly? Solar panels can barely charge my phone. How is it supposed to charge a 15 kWh battery before I starve in the middle of nowhere? Even with a power socket, it takes 5-9 hours to charge an electric bike.
    - magicalhippo 6y ago
      That's only viable if you ride your bike very little or very seldom. My buddy has a Zero S[1], which has a battery pack of about 6kWh nominal. Using a portable 120W solar panel and a total efficiency of 50%, that's 100 hours of sunlight to recharge the battery. And that 120W panel is pretty darn big to lug around. [1]: https://www.zeromotorcycles.com/model/zero-s https://www.zeromotorcycles.com/model/zero-s
    - taneq 6y ago
      Excessive wind resistance?
    - 6y ago
- nickik 6y ago
  The thing is, its expensive to make EV. Most manufacturers make negative money when they sell them, or at least don't have good margin. Also, the amount of battery capacity that currently exists is nowhere near where it needs to be. Most manufactures now try to expand and secure supply, but supply growth is simply not growing fast enough for large companies to switch to EV fast. Tesla doesn't have a smaller car because even for them making a smaller car would mean that compared to other smaller cars it would be massively expensive. They have to further improve cost to be able to make a competitive small car. ICE industry had 100+ years to reach the scale it has.
  - yardie 6y ago
    Which is why most governments issue tax incentives and credits to induce demand. If you removed the tax credits EVs would be a negative even for Tesla.
    - 1958325146 6y ago
      In the US, Telsa no longer receives any federal tax credit as of January 2020. A few states (including California) still have incentives. In any case, losing the tax credit doesn't seem to have slowed them down.
    - nickik 6y ago
      You only get 250k of tax credits, and both Tesla and GM have already used them. Ford still has some. To make money with EV you need to produce way more then 250k of cars, so you can absolutely not relay tax credits to improve margins. Also, Tesla is now competing successfully without tax credits against many companies who still have theirs. Tesla is actually making a pretty good 20% automotive margin, and that is with Model Y still being a small part of sales (and we know that Model Y has better margin).
- lmedinas 6y ago
  I think they are starting now and when the big boom of EV starts with the traditional manufacturers I guess we will not have issues with spare parts. Although I think the automotive market is going through a huge transformation and it might be that a car will become something like a mobile plan or smartphone contract where every 2-4 years you exchange cars. Btw... Have you seen the new VW ID3 ? I guess it’s the closest thing to a mass market small car you can get nowadays.
- brabel 6y ago
  If you want a small electric car, at least in Europe, there's the Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe, and BMW i3.
  - Mudface_72 6y ago
    And Opel Corsa, and W EGolf and VW EUP
annoyingnoob 6y ago
I tried to look up the 2012 Chevy Volt. There is only 2 years of data for an 8 year old car. Not sure what its trying to tell me about 8 year old batteries when there is only data for the first 2 years.
- robotbikes 6y ago
  I saw that too. I have a 2012 Chevy Volt and it still gets on average around 32-35 miles (about original capacity) - The range depends a lot on driving style and climate control. I found out how Chevy over-engineered the system to only use 50% of the battery to maximize its life and the advanced cooling system. The fact that it has a built-in gas-powered generator allows it to be more conservative of the battery life.
  - WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
    > it has a built-in gas-powered generator I've always wanted to drive a hybrid vehicle... how is the maintenance on this (I'm a 2005 toyota corolla kinda guy)?
    - annoyingnoob 6y ago
      I can't speak for others but I had a 2012 Volt and my assessment overall is meh. I'd say that the Volt nails average, its not great at anything and its not terrible at much. I loved driving electric, no shifting, just smooth power. The gas engine how ever would vibrate the car much more than a normal gas car does. Everything in the Volt is lightened - I think the roof might even be plastic. The rear view mirror would vibrate out of place when the gas engine was running. The gas engine is mostly used like a generator in the Volt, meaning it runs at higher RPM most of the time to charge the batteries. I can't tell you how many times I was at a stop light with someone in the crosswalk right in front of the car when the engine decided to start and run at 3500-4000 RPM. You get surprised looks when pedestrians think you are revving up for them. My advice, skip the hybrid and just go electric.
      - 6y ago
tomkludy 6y ago
I own a 2012 Nissan Leaf which has had major battery degradation (first battery went under 70% in only 33k miles, second battery currently around 85% at 45k miles = 78k miles total on both). But on this site, the 2012 Nissan Leaf has less than 2 years of data and shows zero degradation during that time. So it seems like the data is questionable.
- ChuckNorris89 6y ago
  Maybe you got a lemon
  - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
    It seems quite common for early leafs.
  - tomkludy 6y ago
    I had a friend with a 2012 Leaf that experienced similar degradation. It was a problem with the early model year and Nissan's choice to use passively cooled batteries.
- acomjean 6y ago
  I thought leafs had poor battery cooling compared to most cars (air vs liquid cooling) and thus poor lifespan. But your right it’s not comprehensive. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/07/nissans-bigger-battery-bev-the-2019-leaf-plus-review/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/07/nissans-bigger-battery-...
  - Faaak 6y ago
    my 2016 ioniq has still no perceivable battery degradation after 60k km. Maybe the technology has changed ?
    - manfredo 6y ago
      Alternatively, it could be used a state of charge tracking mechanism that conceals battery degradation. Say the battery has 100KWh, but the remaining energy gauge reads zero after 80KWh are expended. You could be degraded to 90KWh but you wouldn't perceive any reduced usable energy until it degrades below 80KWh.
diydsp 6y ago
Did anyone find interesting outliers? Results surprisingly uniform.
RandomWorker 6y ago
Issue I have with the tool is the graphic, and it seems everything is pretty linear. Adding just two numbers: reduction Per year and total Reduction after x years, would make it useful on mobile. Another thing that would improve the tool is some statistics like the best 10% did this and the worst 10% did this.
passive 6y ago
Key bit seems to be: "..batteries are exhibiting high levels of sustained health. If the observed degradation rates are maintained, the vast majority of batteries will outlast the usable life of the vehicle."
afrojack123 6y ago
https://thebulletin.org/2009/01/the-limits-of-energy-storage-technology/ https://thebulletin.org/2009/01/the-limits-of-energy-storage... Get the word out. Batteries are bad hydrogen is good. Current hydrogen gas will have more energy than batteries at peak technology growth. This matters because hydrogen cars are cheaper, more scalable, and more inclusive than battery cars. Rich people get battery cars, you get a battery bike.
- theshrike79 6y ago
  Hydrogen costs 9.5€/kg in Europe. Most cars need 1kg of hydrogen for a 100km trip. That's expensive as fuck. Just did the math on my EV, the cost for a 100km trip is around 2.5€, and that's me using public chargers, because I can't charge at home. With home charging, that number would be about 1/3 lower. PS. Hydrogen cars use the hydrogen to generate electricity, which is again stored in batteries and used to run electric motors.
  - ggm 6y ago
    The current cost of hydrogen is not indicative of its cost under a scale market. What do you think the sustained cost per kg of hydrogen will be?
    - afrojack123 6y ago
      It is forecasted to be about the same as existing gas prices. It is law that all gas/petrol cars have to be removed by 2050 so all existing gas infrastructure will be replaced with hydrogen by then. Most likely earlier
zackify 6y ago
I have a 2020 model 3, that is 10 months old. (Got it in December) It’s had 0% range loss. Still get the full 322. Pretty impressive.
guerby 6y ago
I found this video of an actual lithium battery recycling plant interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxCFDWMPu38 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxCFDWMPu38 Eco-friendly method of recycling EV batteries

109 points by Breadmaker 6y ago

It looks to me like EVs are completely ready for prime-time, and the only thing holding them back is the inertia/greed of major manufacturers (who cannot sell spare parts or expensive maintenance regimes for them as easily). Its just a shame that Tesla doesn't have a smaller car, the Model 3 is huge.

ericvanular 6y ago
EVs themselves are ready, the infrastructure is still a limiting factor. We need to keep working until range anxiety isn't an issue
- ianai 6y ago
  I’m hoping society gets off its laurels and seriously invests in infrastructure ASAP. I also wish someone was looking for work for the displaced workers from electrification. I did have an idea - “Electrification as a service.” But you’d probably have to be Tesla to go down that path.
- riffraff 6y ago
  Not just range anxiety, I literally wouldn't know where to charge my electric car since I live in a city and have neither my own garden nor a garage, I would have to put some cable out of my window across the street. There are a few charging stations around my neighborhood but there are a ton more cars.
  - mprovost 6y ago
    Here in London people do run cables out of their windows (or at least from their house) to cars parked on the street. The more considerate ones will use a safety cover but I also just see cables running out of houses across the footpath to an EV.
  - qmarchi 6y ago
    I have the same situation, I can't charge it at my apartment. Usually, I end up just spending ~40 minutes at the local KIA dealership that has a level 3 charger. If I had access to the office, I'd end up charging there as well.
  - wrkronmiller 6y ago
    Same problem in Manhattan. An electric car would be great for quick trips to nearby mountains for snowboarding/hiking, but finding _any_ parking spot near home can be a nightmare, let alone having to find one near one of the few charging stations we have.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      Don’t own a car in Manhattan? One can always rent an EV for road trips.
  - arrosenberg 6y ago
    In my apartment complex the electric utility installed about three dozen charging stations (which is massively overbuilt for how many electrics there are). It probably makes the most sense for the local utility to wire up any large parking structures and some percentage of street parking. Suburbanites can install a car charger on their property, and is not a massive expense. Also, most-if-not-all electrics can charge over 110v, it just takes forever.
  - ClumsyPilot 6y ago
    You are literally confirming his point - we need charging stations at all parking spots. If you own the parking spot, you can usually install a car charger.
    - twblalock 6y ago
      > If you own the parking spot, you can usually install a car charger. That's not always the case. Even in Silicon Valley, where electric cars are popular, a lot of condo HOAs will not allow chargers to be installed. They require upgrading the electrical infrastructure of the property in some cases -- most buildings cannot handle installing 10 or 20 chargers, which might all be in use at the same time. As a matter of scale, it's very different from installing a charger or two in the garage of a house. Of course, even if that problem went away, that would still only solve the problem for people who own their parking spaces. What are renters supposed to do? Until the infrastructure problem is solved, electric cars only really make sense for homeowners.
      - ClumsyPilot 6y ago
        Yup, it needs to be city wide and nationsl effort.
  - dawnerd 6y ago
    Plugshare can help with that.
  - WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
    This was my issue as well until I had a home. Work had two charging spots for a 25 story building (13 story parking structure). To be honest, the spots are work were often used only by people needing to charge but I would always be scared of forgetting and making someone else's day worse.
  - theshrike79 6y ago
    There is, literally, an app for that. Dozens in fact. Plugshare and A Better Route Planner are the least bad ones. Also many cars have a built-in POI list for charging points.
- _ph_ 6y ago
  Considering how quickly Tesla built up an infrastructure without having much money, it should not be a huge task given the money the large companies even spend for advertising only.
- beezle 6y ago
  It is not just range anxiety. Most people do not want to wait the length of time it takes to charge up. And IIRC, 'fast charge' has very negative effects on battery life. And nobody can bring you a container of electrons if you do run out of juice on the road.
  - burstmode 6y ago
    In Germany, they are working on "containers of electrons": https://www.inside-digital.de/news/hyundai-adac-mobile-charger-hilfe-fuer-elektroautos-ohne-energie https://www.inside-digital.de/news/hyundai-adac-mobile-charg...
    - beezle 6y ago
      That is interesting but seems like it would be impractical from a business perspective. Unless I misunderstand the translation, it could only charge one, maybe two vehicles, enough to (hopefully) make it to a charging station. A regular tow truck/wrecker can carry 20 gallons of gas in just 2-4 containers to provide 10 cars 2 gallons each, probably good for 50-60 miles in most vehicles.
  - dawnerd 6y ago
    Most people won’t be waiting for a charge since you do it over night and have what you need each morning. DC fast charging can be bad but it depends on a lot of factors - it’s also a lot faster than people think. Often your car will be charged enough before you have time to eat a quick snack or use the restroom. There’s also this misconception that you have to charge all the way up. Doing so will do more long term damage to your pack and take forever the higher the SoC.
  - theshrike79 6y ago
    The Chinese auto maker NIO already has battery swap stations and a service that will drive a charger to your location with a container of electrons and charge your car. Fully Charged on YouTube had a video on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTsrDpsYHrw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTsrDpsYHrw
- jillesvangurp 6y ago
  I think range anxiety is more of a psychological/imaginary disorder than a technical challenge. I come from the Netherlands. Most EVs there have a range that would put you way past its borders no matter where you are in the country. Even the cheap & shitty ones. This is of course not something most people do very often in any case. So, you'd expect range anxiety to be less of a concern in the Netherlands. It's not. People are somehow really dreading having to (predictably) stop for a 45 minute charging stop in the rare case they actually do have their trip exceed the maximum range (again, unlikely if you leave on a full charge and don't plan to leave the country). It will tell you when you step into the car what your range is and you can plan right then and there where to stop for lunch/coffee. Most EV drivers do exactly that. Problem solved. ICE car drivers don't do that and typically just have unreliable data instead. You might have 70 km of range or 20. Hard to tell when the needle is close to 0. You might be going up hill or downhill and that might affect what the needle says. It doesn't even indicate range, just fuel volume. So, premature/redundant fuel stops are probably more common than running out of fuel, or indeed battery. By the time you run out of battery, your car will have been drawing your attention to that for quite some time. So, you'd be right to feel anxious about that happening to you because you'd end up looking like the fool you are. Most drivers take the annoying planned charging stop over that some tens of miles before they'd run out. It's more a case of range annoyance than anxiety. In the end everything has a price and if you can afford to fill up your gas guzzling SUV to burn way more fuel than you'd strictly need to get from A to B, that probably has more to do with other forms of anxiety than with the actual range of the car.
  - everdrive 6y ago
    It reminds me a bit of (some) people who think they need a truck. We were going to buy a truck for our (very small) farm, but when we really sat down and thought about the amount of times we'd use it, the number turned out to be 0-3 times a year. In this situation it makes sense to rent, and most of the time, our tiny subcompact does 100% of what we need a car to do. For those few times I may really need a truck, I can probably rent one, or find some other accommodation. Range anxiety is the same -- most of the time, people drive between home and work. For most people, this fits in the range for an electric. If you really want to drive across the country, you can just rent a car, and this will be much cheaper than owning an ICE for how often you'll actually need to do it. If you're lucky enough to have the space and money, and need two cars in the first place, then it makes sense for one to be electric: the one driven most often, and then the ICE vehicle for when electric is not appropriate.
ape4 6y ago
Small Tesla seems to be in the works. https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/tesla-small-electric-hatchback-elon-musk-designed-germany/ https://electrek.co/2020/07/10/tesla-small-electric-hatchbac...
nicbou 6y ago
I don't care about electric cars, but I care about electric motorcycles. As a long range traveler, there are a few issues that are left unaddressed: * My bike has a 500 kilometre range, which is about the maximum I'll ride in a day. Electric bikes have a smaller range than what I usually cover in a day. On the highway, the range drops so much that I'd need to take an extended lunch to finish my journey. * I can extend my range by 200-300km by carrying extra fuel. This is not possible with electric cars. * I can fuel up in 5 minutes. Refuelling does not dictate my schedule. * I don't need to find a gas station that's within walking distance of my hotel (I have two heavy boxes to schlep around). Refuelling does not dictate where I can sleep. * If I run out of fuel, I can ask someone to bring some from a gas station. I don't need to tow the car. * I can't begin to imagine the logistics of finding a convenient power outlet everywhere I stop.
- newsclues 6y ago
  EV bikes with solar panels offer something gas cannot.
  - nicbou 6y ago
    What exactly? Solar panels can barely charge my phone. How is it supposed to charge a 15 kWh battery before I starve in the middle of nowhere? Even with a power socket, it takes 5-9 hours to charge an electric bike.
  - magicalhippo 6y ago
    That's only viable if you ride your bike very little or very seldom. My buddy has a Zero S[1], which has a battery pack of about 6kWh nominal. Using a portable 120W solar panel and a total efficiency of 50%, that's 100 hours of sunlight to recharge the battery. And that 120W panel is pretty darn big to lug around. [1]: https://www.zeromotorcycles.com/model/zero-s https://www.zeromotorcycles.com/model/zero-s
  - taneq 6y ago
    Excessive wind resistance?
  - 6y ago
nickik 6y ago
The thing is, its expensive to make EV. Most manufacturers make negative money when they sell them, or at least don't have good margin. Also, the amount of battery capacity that currently exists is nowhere near where it needs to be. Most manufactures now try to expand and secure supply, but supply growth is simply not growing fast enough for large companies to switch to EV fast. Tesla doesn't have a smaller car because even for them making a smaller car would mean that compared to other smaller cars it would be massively expensive. They have to further improve cost to be able to make a competitive small car. ICE industry had 100+ years to reach the scale it has.
- yardie 6y ago
  Which is why most governments issue tax incentives and credits to induce demand. If you removed the tax credits EVs would be a negative even for Tesla.
  - 1958325146 6y ago
    In the US, Telsa no longer receives any federal tax credit as of January 2020. A few states (including California) still have incentives. In any case, losing the tax credit doesn't seem to have slowed them down.
  - nickik 6y ago
    You only get 250k of tax credits, and both Tesla and GM have already used them. Ford still has some. To make money with EV you need to produce way more then 250k of cars, so you can absolutely not relay tax credits to improve margins. Also, Tesla is now competing successfully without tax credits against many companies who still have theirs. Tesla is actually making a pretty good 20% automotive margin, and that is with Model Y still being a small part of sales (and we know that Model Y has better margin).
lmedinas 6y ago
I think they are starting now and when the big boom of EV starts with the traditional manufacturers I guess we will not have issues with spare parts. Although I think the automotive market is going through a huge transformation and it might be that a car will become something like a mobile plan or smartphone contract where every 2-4 years you exchange cars. Btw... Have you seen the new VW ID3 ? I guess it’s the closest thing to a mass market small car you can get nowadays.
brabel 6y ago
If you want a small electric car, at least in Europe, there's the Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe, and BMW i3.
- Mudface_72 6y ago
  And Opel Corsa, and W EGolf and VW EUP

annoyingnoob 6y ago

I tried to look up the 2012 Chevy Volt. There is only 2 years of data for an 8 year old car. Not sure what its trying to tell me about 8 year old batteries when there is only data for the first 2 years.

robotbikes 6y ago
I saw that too. I have a 2012 Chevy Volt and it still gets on average around 32-35 miles (about original capacity) - The range depends a lot on driving style and climate control. I found out how Chevy over-engineered the system to only use 50% of the battery to maximize its life and the advanced cooling system. The fact that it has a built-in gas-powered generator allows it to be more conservative of the battery life.
- WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
  > it has a built-in gas-powered generator I've always wanted to drive a hybrid vehicle... how is the maintenance on this (I'm a 2005 toyota corolla kinda guy)?
  - annoyingnoob 6y ago
    I can't speak for others but I had a 2012 Volt and my assessment overall is meh. I'd say that the Volt nails average, its not great at anything and its not terrible at much. I loved driving electric, no shifting, just smooth power. The gas engine how ever would vibrate the car much more than a normal gas car does. Everything in the Volt is lightened - I think the roof might even be plastic. The rear view mirror would vibrate out of place when the gas engine was running. The gas engine is mostly used like a generator in the Volt, meaning it runs at higher RPM most of the time to charge the batteries. I can't tell you how many times I was at a stop light with someone in the crosswalk right in front of the car when the engine decided to start and run at 3500-4000 RPM. You get surprised looks when pedestrians think you are revving up for them. My advice, skip the hybrid and just go electric.
    - 6y ago

tomkludy 6y ago

I own a 2012 Nissan Leaf which has had major battery degradation (first battery went under 70% in only 33k miles, second battery currently around 85% at 45k miles = 78k miles total on both). But on this site, the 2012 Nissan Leaf has less than 2 years of data and shows zero degradation during that time. So it seems like the data is questionable.

ChuckNorris89 6y ago
Maybe you got a lemon
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  It seems quite common for early leafs.
- tomkludy 6y ago
  I had a friend with a 2012 Leaf that experienced similar degradation. It was a problem with the early model year and Nissan's choice to use passively cooled batteries.
acomjean 6y ago
I thought leafs had poor battery cooling compared to most cars (air vs liquid cooling) and thus poor lifespan. But your right it’s not comprehensive. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/07/nissans-bigger-battery-bev-the-2019-leaf-plus-review/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/07/nissans-bigger-battery-...
- Faaak 6y ago
  my 2016 ioniq has still no perceivable battery degradation after 60k km. Maybe the technology has changed ?
  - manfredo 6y ago
    Alternatively, it could be used a state of charge tracking mechanism that conceals battery degradation. Say the battery has 100KWh, but the remaining energy gauge reads zero after 80KWh are expended. You could be degraded to 90KWh but you wouldn't perceive any reduced usable energy until it degrades below 80KWh.

diydsp 6y ago

Did anyone find interesting outliers? Results surprisingly uniform.

RandomWorker 6y ago

Issue I have with the tool is the graphic, and it seems everything is pretty linear. Adding just two numbers: reduction Per year and total Reduction after x years, would make it useful on mobile. Another thing that would improve the tool is some statistics like the best 10% did this and the worst 10% did this.

passive 6y ago

Key bit seems to be: "..batteries are exhibiting high levels of sustained health. If the observed degradation rates are maintained, the vast majority of batteries will outlast the usable life of the vehicle."

afrojack123 6y ago

https://thebulletin.org/2009/01/the-limits-of-energy-storage-technology/ https://thebulletin.org/2009/01/the-limits-of-energy-storage... Get the word out. Batteries are bad hydrogen is good. Current hydrogen gas will have more energy than batteries at peak technology growth. This matters because hydrogen cars are cheaper, more scalable, and more inclusive than battery cars. Rich people get battery cars, you get a battery bike.

theshrike79 6y ago
Hydrogen costs 9.5€/kg in Europe. Most cars need 1kg of hydrogen for a 100km trip. That's expensive as fuck. Just did the math on my EV, the cost for a 100km trip is around 2.5€, and that's me using public chargers, because I can't charge at home. With home charging, that number would be about 1/3 lower. PS. Hydrogen cars use the hydrogen to generate electricity, which is again stored in batteries and used to run electric motors.
- ggm 6y ago
  The current cost of hydrogen is not indicative of its cost under a scale market. What do you think the sustained cost per kg of hydrogen will be?
  - afrojack123 6y ago
    It is forecasted to be about the same as existing gas prices. It is law that all gas/petrol cars have to be removed by 2050 so all existing gas infrastructure will be replaced with hydrogen by then. Most likely earlier

zackify 6y ago

I have a 2020 model 3, that is 10 months old. (Got it in December) It’s had 0% range loss. Still get the full 322. Pretty impressive.

guerby 6y ago

I found this video of an actual lithium battery recycling plant interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxCFDWMPu38 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxCFDWMPu38 Eco-friendly method of recycling EV batteries