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> “ This first category of defect is unlikely to apply very often to autonomous vehicles, since modern manufacturing methods, especially for critical components

> “ This first category of defect is unlikely to apply very often to autonomous vehicles, since modern manufacturing methods, especially for critical components of autonomous vehicles such as the software and navigation systems, can be manufactured with low error rates.” That is a very strange thing to say. I would think this assertion is not settled at all, and actually the hearth of the matter.

tremon 6y ago
The first category is a manufacturing defect, where the product departs from its intended design Errors of this kind are transfer errors, where (for software) the image loaded onto the vehicle is not bit-for-bit identical to the original code. I would agree with the assessment that these errors are rare, since verification of the process is rather easy: all firmware update procedures already have an established process for verifying the written ROM contents. What they're actually saying is that most navigation errors will stem from design flaws, not from bit-flip errors, which seems a defensible assumption to me.
- nullc 6y ago
  > errors will stem from design flaws, not from bit-flip errors, which seems a defensible assumption to me. Unless the manufacturer decides that automotive grade parts are overpriced and low performance for the price and starts deploying non-automotive/non-industrial grade parts. Fortunately no reputable automaker would do something like that as they'd surely face dire consequences in the market if they did.
  - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
    Automotive grade is consumer grade. There's standards for some things but they're standards of convenience so that an engineer from GM can call up Bosch and just reference a standard rather than spec it out in detail. Some safety critical things and the overall performance of some systems have standards that need to be met per law but there is no special "automotive grade" for pretty much anything that goes into a car.
    - nullc 6y ago
      Most parts I've seen marked as automotive grade have a radically wider temperature range.
pritovido 6y ago
In my experience working with critical hardware and software with sensors, I believe this is pretty much settled, because those components are fixed and well known. We know with precision how to maintain those, the rate of failure and audit or overhaul times. In fact, right know sensors could "call home" when there is a problem. The heart of the matter is what is not known, like the wild board getting in the road, or a cyclist that appears from the side, or the road is wet, there is ice or snow on the road. Usually what happens for accidents is all of the above, like it is dark(you don't see cars but specular reflections of lights), it is wet, there is ice and snow and a cyclist appears out of nowhere. Those things are extremely unknown and hard to model, and AI does not work there.
- noodlesoups 6y ago
  >Those things are extremely unknown and hard to model, and AI does not work there. That might be because they're problems for _any_ thing. Can't really apply a solution to a problem with what hasn't been solved in the first place. No human is doing any better either, so it'd be unfair to expect autonomous vehicles to do miracles either. For some reason it's fine that Bob just killed a family of four, but unfathomable for a thinking rock to make the slightest error.
  - dredds 6y ago
    Bob was having yet another bad day, and everyone knows Bob drives like he owns the road, and is really just a ticking time bomb. Bob doesn't heed any of the caution his colleagues have, nor care. That clever rock had many of the brightest geniuses on the planet working around the clock for decades steadily making it less prone to calamity. We entrust our lives and family on that proverbial magic carpet ride made by unseen digital gods. It's almost a religious level of faith and expectation. They thought rock-et science was hard...

tremon 6y ago

The first category is a manufacturing defect, where the product departs from its intended design Errors of this kind are transfer errors, where (for software) the image loaded onto the vehicle is not bit-for-bit identical to the original code. I would agree with the assessment that these errors are rare, since verification of the process is rather easy: all firmware update procedures already have an established process for verifying the written ROM contents. What they're actually saying is that most navigation errors will stem from design flaws, not from bit-flip errors, which seems a defensible assumption to me.

nullc 6y ago
> errors will stem from design flaws, not from bit-flip errors, which seems a defensible assumption to me. Unless the manufacturer decides that automotive grade parts are overpriced and low performance for the price and starts deploying non-automotive/non-industrial grade parts. Fortunately no reputable automaker would do something like that as they'd surely face dire consequences in the market if they did.
- throwaway0a5e 6y ago
  Automotive grade is consumer grade. There's standards for some things but they're standards of convenience so that an engineer from GM can call up Bosch and just reference a standard rather than spec it out in detail. Some safety critical things and the overall performance of some systems have standards that need to be met per law but there is no special "automotive grade" for pretty much anything that goes into a car.
  - nullc 6y ago
    Most parts I've seen marked as automotive grade have a radically wider temperature range.

pritovido 6y ago

In my experience working with critical hardware and software with sensors, I believe this is pretty much settled, because those components are fixed and well known. We know with precision how to maintain those, the rate of failure and audit or overhaul times. In fact, right know sensors could "call home" when there is a problem. The heart of the matter is what is not known, like the wild board getting in the road, or a cyclist that appears from the side, or the road is wet, there is ice or snow on the road. Usually what happens for accidents is all of the above, like it is dark(you don't see cars but specular reflections of lights), it is wet, there is ice and snow and a cyclist appears out of nowhere. Those things are extremely unknown and hard to model, and AI does not work there.

noodlesoups 6y ago
>Those things are extremely unknown and hard to model, and AI does not work there. That might be because they're problems for _any_ thing. Can't really apply a solution to a problem with what hasn't been solved in the first place. No human is doing any better either, so it'd be unfair to expect autonomous vehicles to do miracles either. For some reason it's fine that Bob just killed a family of four, but unfathomable for a thinking rock to make the slightest error.
- dredds 6y ago
  Bob was having yet another bad day, and everyone knows Bob drives like he owns the road, and is really just a ticking time bomb. Bob doesn't heed any of the caution his colleagues have, nor care. That clever rock had many of the brightest geniuses on the planet working around the clock for decades steadily making it less prone to calamity. We entrust our lives and family on that proverbial magic carpet ride made by unseen digital gods. It's almost a religious level of faith and expectation. They thought rock-et science was hard...