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I spend a lot of time on Ethereum and wanted to respond to your points. 1) Yes, proof of work is terrible long-term, mainly because its cost scales with the ma

by spir 6y ago

I spend a lot of time on Ethereum and wanted to respond to your points. 1) Yes, proof of work is terrible long-term, mainly because its cost scales with the market cap of the cryptocurrencies it secures. Ethereum is switching to proof of stake, which uses a normal amount of electricity and forever solves this issue 2) There are also a lot of excellent ideas and projects. For example, Gitcoin, quadratic funding, quadratic voting https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3243656 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3243656 3) It's true that there are many scams/crimes in crypto, and that many or most holders of cryptocurrencies are speculators. What makes crypto different from tulips is that many speculators believe that crypto will come to power large portions of the world's financial and economic infrastructure. 4) Whether a random crypto startup is likely to be a scam depends entirely on your filters and definition of "startup". If you limit your population to projects or tokens with some level of social validation, such as being top-ranked on coinmarketcap or backed by in-industry VCs, then there're hardly any scams at all. Ethereum now has hundreds of quality teams working on many different parts of the ecosystem. For example, the DEX space (decentralized exchanges, eg. https://uniswap.org/ https://uniswap.org/) is very different than the layer-2 scaling space (eg. https://optimism.io/ https://optimism.io/) 5) [It's a wild west...] Respectfully, this is an unkind or perhaps bigoted statement. I have many friends in crypto who are thoughtful, kind people. They think deeply about the ethical implications of the systems we're building. The same is true of many leaders in the space.

Jasper_ 6y ago
> Ethereum is switching to proof of stake, which uses a normal amount of electricity and forever solves this issue This has been said for a few years now. The originally deadline for this was January 2020. Suffice to say, it didn't happen. I'll believe it when I see it. Ultimately, Blockchain seems to me to be a solution in search of a problem. There are a lot of issues with the current implementations, and a lot of words about how to solve them, but these are hard problems, and there's no guarantees they're going to be solved, and they are often problems that our current financial tech industry just doesn't have.
- dmihal 6y ago
  > This has been said for a few years now. The originally deadline for this was January 2020. Suffice to say, it didn't happen. I'll believe it when I see it. Definitely not the first time a tech product has been delayed! The beacon chain (first phase of the PoS transition) is on it's final testnet right now and operating well. The community is hoping for a mainnet launch in November.
  - TeMPOraL 6y ago
    > Definitely not the first time a tech product has been delayed! True! But in this case, the issue for most part wasn't just a delay because work took longer - but the question of whether or not it can be mathematically proven to work was open (and if it can't be proven to be possible and working, there's no point in trying). My intuition told me the result will be "it's not possible; waste in PoW is fundamental to these kinds of structures". I'm relieved to see I was wrong.
bjl 6y ago
> 5) [It's a wild west...] Respectfully, this is an unkind or perhaps bigoted statement. I have many friends in crypto who are thoughtful, kind people. They think deeply about the ethical implications of the systems we're building. The same is true of many leaders in the space. Its undeniable that the proportion of criminals among cryptocurrency enthusiasts is far higher than in the population at large. I don't see how its unkind or bigoted to point that out.
TeMPOraL 6y ago
Thank you for the thoughtful response. I'll preface with saying that I listed my points as a contributors to the source of feelings I have about the crypto space - they're observations subject to selection bias. RE 1. I keep hearing this for years now; I'll believe in PoS when I see it actually working. RE 2., I just tend to keep finding (or being approached with) really bad ones. Last time I got excited was with FileCoin, but that seems to be... not moving too fast at all. I'll look into the quadratic funding/voting thing; it looks interesting, but from the brief overview, it's not necessarily crypto-specific. RE 3. That belief is what I consider naive - or just perhaps I strongly hope it's wrong, because of point 1. RE 4. That's true. I just keep hitting the obviously scammy ones - but that's perhaps because I'm an outside observer. Honest people who are knee-deep in crypto are definitely able to separate the wheat from the chaff. RE 5. I don't doubt your friends are thoughtful and have strong moral compasses. But in that last statement, I was talking about trading these currencies in general - which counts in scam coins, bullshit "crypto! AI!" startups, and various criminals using cryptocurrencies for illicit trade. I would think this point is self-evident - an unregulated space with features that give more utility to criminals than to law-abiding citizens will, by definition, attract disproportionately more of the former than the latter. Also, when I say "disproportionately more" I really mean it, it's not a code for "everyone is bad".
- spir 6y ago
  Thanks for your reply! You might be interested to check out https://medalla.launchpad.ethereum.org https://medalla.launchpad.ethereum.org - this is a public testnet of Ethereum proof of stake https://beaconcha.in/ https://beaconcha.in/ - this is an explorer for the proof of stake testnet. The proof of stake chain is called the "beacon chain". If you want to believe in PoS when you see it actually working, this site is actually that! The public testnet launched in the last month or so. They are hoping to launch mainnet later this year.
  - TeMPOraL 6y ago
    Thank you! This looks like the significant development I was waiting for.
  - 6y ago
3np 6y ago
> such as being top-ranked on coinmarketcap or backed by in-industry VCs, then there're hardly any scams at all I have to disagree there. Looking at the top 20, I see 3. XRP (Market cap hugely inflated, vaporware) 8. Bitcoin SV (This is textbook) 9. CRO (Not obvious today but time will tell) 11. EOS 15. TRON 19. NEO (Depending on your definition of "scam" and maybe it was well-intentioned initially, but having tried implementing for it, it's nowhere near living up to what they claim the current state is) Then there's Tether/USDT, which I know is a contentious one given their history. I'm very much a long-term believer (10y+ until ready for mainstream, and even today an important hedge to mainstream finance and national economies) but we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking the majority of current volume is not what we'd like to believe it is. There's also the fact that you can have a big team of well-intentioned and intelligent people being orchestrated by a charismatic and convincing charlatan. There are multiple historical examples of this.

by spir 6y ago

Jasper_ 6y ago

> Ethereum is switching to proof of stake, which uses a normal amount of electricity and forever solves this issue This has been said for a few years now. The originally deadline for this was January 2020. Suffice to say, it didn't happen. I'll believe it when I see it. Ultimately, Blockchain seems to me to be a solution in search of a problem. There are a lot of issues with the current implementations, and a lot of words about how to solve them, but these are hard problems, and there's no guarantees they're going to be solved, and they are often problems that our current financial tech industry just doesn't have.

dmihal 6y ago
> This has been said for a few years now. The originally deadline for this was January 2020. Suffice to say, it didn't happen. I'll believe it when I see it. Definitely not the first time a tech product has been delayed! The beacon chain (first phase of the PoS transition) is on it's final testnet right now and operating well. The community is hoping for a mainnet launch in November.
- TeMPOraL 6y ago
  > Definitely not the first time a tech product has been delayed! True! But in this case, the issue for most part wasn't just a delay because work took longer - but the question of whether or not it can be mathematically proven to work was open (and if it can't be proven to be possible and working, there's no point in trying). My intuition told me the result will be "it's not possible; waste in PoW is fundamental to these kinds of structures". I'm relieved to see I was wrong.

bjl 6y ago

> 5) [It's a wild west...] Respectfully, this is an unkind or perhaps bigoted statement. I have many friends in crypto who are thoughtful, kind people. They think deeply about the ethical implications of the systems we're building. The same is true of many leaders in the space. Its undeniable that the proportion of criminals among cryptocurrency enthusiasts is far higher than in the population at large. I don't see how its unkind or bigoted to point that out.

TeMPOraL 6y ago

Thank you for the thoughtful response. I'll preface with saying that I listed my points as a contributors to the source of feelings I have about the crypto space - they're observations subject to selection bias. RE 1. I keep hearing this for years now; I'll believe in PoS when I see it actually working. RE 2., I just tend to keep finding (or being approached with) really bad ones. Last time I got excited was with FileCoin, but that seems to be... not moving too fast at all. I'll look into the quadratic funding/voting thing; it looks interesting, but from the brief overview, it's not necessarily crypto-specific. RE 3. That belief is what I consider naive - or just perhaps I strongly hope it's wrong, because of point 1. RE 4. That's true. I just keep hitting the obviously scammy ones - but that's perhaps because I'm an outside observer. Honest people who are knee-deep in crypto are definitely able to separate the wheat from the chaff. RE 5. I don't doubt your friends are thoughtful and have strong moral compasses. But in that last statement, I was talking about trading these currencies in general - which counts in scam coins, bullshit "crypto! AI!" startups, and various criminals using cryptocurrencies for illicit trade. I would think this point is self-evident - an unregulated space with features that give more utility to criminals than to law-abiding citizens will, by definition, attract disproportionately more of the former than the latter. Also, when I say "disproportionately more" I really mean it, it's not a code for "everyone is bad".

spir 6y ago
Thanks for your reply! You might be interested to check out https://medalla.launchpad.ethereum.org https://medalla.launchpad.ethereum.org - this is a public testnet of Ethereum proof of stake https://beaconcha.in/ https://beaconcha.in/ - this is an explorer for the proof of stake testnet. The proof of stake chain is called the "beacon chain". If you want to believe in PoS when you see it actually working, this site is actually that! The public testnet launched in the last month or so. They are hoping to launch mainnet later this year.
- TeMPOraL 6y ago
  Thank you! This looks like the significant development I was waiting for.
- 6y ago

3np 6y ago

> such as being top-ranked on coinmarketcap or backed by in-industry VCs, then there're hardly any scams at all I have to disagree there. Looking at the top 20, I see 3. XRP (Market cap hugely inflated, vaporware) 8. Bitcoin SV (This is textbook) 9. CRO (Not obvious today but time will tell) 11. EOS 15. TRON 19. NEO (Depending on your definition of "scam" and maybe it was well-intentioned initially, but having tried implementing for it, it's nowhere near living up to what they claim the current state is) Then there's Tether/USDT, which I know is a contentious one given their history. I'm very much a long-term believer (10y+ until ready for mainstream, and even today an important hedge to mainstream finance and national economies) but we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking the majority of current volume is not what we'd like to believe it is. There's also the fact that you can have a big team of well-intentioned and intelligent people being orchestrated by a charismatic and convincing charlatan. There are multiple historical examples of this.