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"Make money in the long run" is a fine strategy, but as Keynes quipped "in the long run, we're all dead". 17 years is more than enough time have exploited quit

"Make money in the long run" is a fine strategy, but as Keynes quipped "in the long run, we're all dead". 17 years is more than enough time have exploited quite a few long-term deals. It isn't like governments aren't aware of these tactics. They can and do work to substitute out vendors once they get too expensive. In fact I've heard whispers of several customers of Palantir doing just that. (Disclosure: I work for a competitor of Palantir.)

bhupy 6y ago
> as Keynes quipped "in the long run, we're all dead" This is one of the more over-used quotes. In this case, it's not particularly relevant since US fiscal and monetary policy is almost entirely designed around incentivizing long-term investment over short-term gains. If Palantir is indeed a good "long run" bet, then every pension fund, 401(k), mutual fund, or ETF (read: most institutional investors) should in theory eat it up after the IPO. To borrow another pithy quote: "Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome." - Charlie Munger
- Barrin92 6y ago
  >in theory eat it up after the IPO. or maybe not in theory but in practise, the entire stock market performance has shifted so strongly towards technology companies due to the general low growth environment we're in that the whole thing comes crashing down in five to ten years because there's actually no business model
  - bhupy 6y ago
    In practice, the entire stock market has reverted to a comically long-run view of the economy writ large. That's why despite a historic pandemic, unemployment, and GDP contraction, most indexes (including the un-weighted ones) are at close to all-time-highs. It's all "priced in".