4 ms·
The probability that he will make good is a function of the payback amount (interest) so this may have have no solution. Each multiplication changes the underly
by robertk 6y ago
The probability that he will make good is a function of the payback amount (interest) so this may have have no solution. Each multiplication changes the underlying probability itself and requires a recalculation so this does not work.
- ncmncm 6y agoIt does not work, regardless. The probability that he will make good starts out at exactly zero and stays there, whatever your estimate. It is a demonstration that Pascal's wager is nonsense.
- perl4ever 6y agoThe probability isn't zero though. It's very small, but it's not infinitely unlikely. I mean, what if he accidentally made 10 times the amount by luck and then had a stroke that changed his personality so he decided to pay out?
- ncmncm 6y agoNo matter how much he offers to pay back, and no matter how its reciprocal compares to the actual probability of paying it, it would still be foolish to lend the money. And that is the point.