I think we should see things relative here: He's not investing short-term so in a sense his profits will already be much higher due to "not chasing the latest

I think we should see things relative here: He's not investing short-term so in a sense his profits will already be much higher due to "not chasing the latest fad". Secondly, for long-term investment, I believe crude theses are sufficient. If you believe in a tech future, go for it. Be ready to lose it all but got for it. Same goes for theses like transport revolution, war, china will be the new superpower, AI etc. I personally don't believe in all of them but having a few of those (and diversifying also across asset classes) will either teach you wisdom and humility or net you a nice profit. I also believe it's in the long-term bimodal - either it's factor 10+ or factor 0. So one positive investment neutralizes 9 negative, with two positives you're profiting. My only beef with tech right now would be that it's the most crowded trade I've seen in a long time. AAPL is worth 20x BTC, add the other FANGs and draw your conclusions.