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I always thought my parents should have seen the potential of Microsoft and Apple back in the day. But what potential did I see? 1999: I was a teenager, so no

I always thought my parents should have seen the potential of Microsoft and Apple back in the day. But what potential did I see? 1999: I was a teenager, so no stocks for me 2009: In my early twenties, no cash, not interested in the stock market 2020: Saw the potential of recovery, most money already tied up (house, stocks) The tech companies pulled the stock market back up. The future will be in tech. So I'm not betting against tech. I do not care much about arguments, I just buy some bitcoin because I think technology is the future. Is it blockchain? I don't know, don't care, but sure I'm not gonna miss it. Almost all people are bad at making future forecasts. So I don't.

arcticbull 6y ago
> I just buy some bitcoin because I think technology is the future. Is it blockchain? I don't know, don't care, but sure I'm not gonna miss it. That's a dreadful reason to invest. There's literally a universe of things you could be investing in, from literal tulip bulbs to shovels to Apple. You should have some thesis before you throw money at things.
- patatino 6y ago
  I have, it‘s technology, like I wrote. I‘m also invested in other technologies.
  - arcticbull 6y ago
    "It's technology" means nothing. The wheel is technology. The only thing anyone's invested in is technology. You need a thesis for why you think this technology is going to yield a return in excess of the S&P, otherwise you should be invested in a risk parity adjusted pairing of the S&P and treasuries. No thesis <=> reckless investment. More like gambling, tbh. Unabashed FOMO is not an investment thesis. I don't mean to be mean -- and I know they're not super popular with the folks on this board -- but this kind of thing is why we have accredited investor rules.
    - patatino 6y ago
      I actually don‘t need a thesis, I can just expose myself to a new technology with a tiny portion of my net worth just like that. If that doesn‘t fit your criteria of what someone can do, it‘s ok, I can live with that.
      - arcticbull 6y ago
        You absolutely can, nobody's stopping you (unfortunately), I'm just saying that its (a) not a good idea unless you know why you're investing in something and (b) you came out saying that you were investing in crypto not because you knew anything about it but because it was "technology" and FOMO. There are so many technologies out there, I don't see why you're not invested in all of them, except for FOMO. If I knew you personally we'd have a long talk about investing.
        dmichulke 6y ago
        I think we should see things relative here: He's not investing short-term so in a sense his profits will already be much higher due to "not chasing the latest fad". Secondly, for long-term investment, I believe crude theses are sufficient. If you believe in a tech future, go for it. Be ready to lose it all but got for it. Same goes for theses like transport revolution, war, china will be the new superpower, AI etc. I personally don't believe in all of them but having a few of those (and diversifying also across asset classes) will either teach you wisdom and humility or net you a nice profit. I also believe it's in the long-term bimodal - either it's factor 10+ or factor 0. So one positive investment neutralizes 9 negative, with two positives you're profiting. My only beef with tech right now would be that it's the most crowded trade I've seen in a long time. AAPL is worth 20x BTC, add the other FANGs and draw your conclusions.
        patatino 6y ago
        I never said I know nothing about it, please don't put words in my mouth. I said I don't know if blockchain is going be a technology that will win in the future and I'm not gonna guess why it will or not. Why? Because I could do both. I see technology with potential I take a stab at it, simple as that. I don't need to convince myself into being a "believer" in it. And the thesis why I think technology can outperform the S&P500 I already answered, technology companies are the ones which turned the stock market around, therefore I think technology companies will outperform the S&P500. I'm thankful for your financial advice, but I'm good.
icedchai 6y ago
Have you considered just investing in a tech ETF like VGT or XLK? Both have done well.
perl4ever 6y ago
>I do not care much about arguments, I just buy some bitcoin because I think technology is the future. Is it blockchain? I don't know, don't care, but sure I'm not gonna miss it. People thought the same 20 years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flooz.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flooz.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beenz.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beenz.com

arcticbull 6y ago

> I just buy some bitcoin because I think technology is the future. Is it blockchain? I don't know, don't care, but sure I'm not gonna miss it. That's a dreadful reason to invest. There's literally a universe of things you could be investing in, from literal tulip bulbs to shovels to Apple. You should have some thesis before you throw money at things.

patatino 6y ago
I have, it‘s technology, like I wrote. I‘m also invested in other technologies.
- arcticbull 6y ago
  "It's technology" means nothing. The wheel is technology. The only thing anyone's invested in is technology. You need a thesis for why you think this technology is going to yield a return in excess of the S&P, otherwise you should be invested in a risk parity adjusted pairing of the S&P and treasuries. No thesis <=> reckless investment. More like gambling, tbh. Unabashed FOMO is not an investment thesis. I don't mean to be mean -- and I know they're not super popular with the folks on this board -- but this kind of thing is why we have accredited investor rules.
  - patatino 6y ago
    I actually don‘t need a thesis, I can just expose myself to a new technology with a tiny portion of my net worth just like that. If that doesn‘t fit your criteria of what someone can do, it‘s ok, I can live with that.
    - arcticbull 6y ago
      You absolutely can, nobody's stopping you (unfortunately), I'm just saying that its (a) not a good idea unless you know why you're investing in something and (b) you came out saying that you were investing in crypto not because you knew anything about it but because it was "technology" and FOMO. There are so many technologies out there, I don't see why you're not invested in all of them, except for FOMO. If I knew you personally we'd have a long talk about investing.
      - dmichulke 6y ago
        I think we should see things relative here: He's not investing short-term so in a sense his profits will already be much higher due to "not chasing the latest fad". Secondly, for long-term investment, I believe crude theses are sufficient. If you believe in a tech future, go for it. Be ready to lose it all but got for it. Same goes for theses like transport revolution, war, china will be the new superpower, AI etc. I personally don't believe in all of them but having a few of those (and diversifying also across asset classes) will either teach you wisdom and humility or net you a nice profit. I also believe it's in the long-term bimodal - either it's factor 10+ or factor 0. So one positive investment neutralizes 9 negative, with two positives you're profiting. My only beef with tech right now would be that it's the most crowded trade I've seen in a long time. AAPL is worth 20x BTC, add the other FANGs and draw your conclusions.
      - patatino 6y ago
        I never said I know nothing about it, please don't put words in my mouth. I said I don't know if blockchain is going be a technology that will win in the future and I'm not gonna guess why it will or not. Why? Because I could do both. I see technology with potential I take a stab at it, simple as that. I don't need to convince myself into being a "believer" in it. And the thesis why I think technology can outperform the S&P500 I already answered, technology companies are the ones which turned the stock market around, therefore I think technology companies will outperform the S&P500. I'm thankful for your financial advice, but I'm good.

icedchai 6y ago

Have you considered just investing in a tech ETF like VGT or XLK? Both have done well.

perl4ever 6y ago

>I do not care much about arguments, I just buy some bitcoin because I think technology is the future. Is it blockchain? I don't know, don't care, but sure I'm not gonna miss it. People thought the same 20 years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flooz.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flooz.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beenz.com https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beenz.com