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Normally the US Fed has the following four tools at their disposal: the discount rate, reserve requirements, open market operations, and interest on reserves.

• toomuchtodo 6y ago
  To be fair, the Fed is going to bail out social security as well when they buy Treasuries to replenish the SS trust fund gap. The path to an attempted soft landing is inflating away the constraints the economy is encountering. We’re going to print, not repay, our way out of this.
  • baconandeggs 6y ago
    > We’re going to print, not repay, our way out of this. Try to, we're going to try to print our way out of it.
    • ethbro 6y ago
      If the Fed wants to print their way out of this, the Fed can print their way out of this. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2
      • baconandeggs 6y ago
        Nominally you can do whatever you want, that it solves anything is another question. And in fact, they've been printing money for over a decade and things have only gotten worse. The Enron balance sheet could handle a lot too.
        • TuringNYC 6y ago
          I think one key consideration is optics. Printing our way out satiates the power base of the population, even if it does cause longer term damage. Swallowing a bitter pill now causes immediate unrest, which is why we’ve a souses this for 12yrs running now.
        • ahnick 6y ago
          I am sincerely asking here... as long as the US dollar remains the majority reserve currency won't the US be able to successfully print its way out and basically ignore the balance sheet? If you think the US could experience repercussions while being the majority reserve currency what are the plausible scenario(s) that that would manifest itself?
          • neilwilson 6y ago
            It doesn’t matter whether it is reserve or not. All floating currencies can do the same. The issue is that the non government sector tends to hoard money rather than spending it. The left want to confiscate those savings. The right try to mask them by pushing more and more people into debt. The other option is that you realise net savings are largely inert in aggregate and essentially act like a tax. Then you just accommodate them
            • ahnick 6y ago
              I agree with your statements about the non government sector and other items; however, I still don't follow your line of argumentation. My understanding of why the US can print money without regard for consequences is because there are always "buyers" for US dollars, b/c countries need US Dollars to carry out business (e.g. China in order to maintain their export driven economy or the fact that the USD is used as the standard unit of currency in international markets for commodities such as gold and petroleum). Yes, there are technically other currencies that are part of the foreign exchange reserves, but none as prevalent as the USD. As I understand it, this demand for US dollars is what allows USD to remain the dominant reserve currency and why when the US prints money it does not result in catastrophic inflation. If a country like Argentina tries to do what the US does it won't work out, because there is no demand for Argentinian dollars. The conclusion I'm left with is that the balance sheet is largely irrelevant until the demand for US Dollar decreases. The real question in my mind is exactly what would cause that to occur? Most everything I read is that the network effect of the USD causes everyone to continue to use it, but perhaps something like a war between the US and China might be a precipitating event to decreased demand?
      • cinquemb 6y ago
        Nothing but a debt trap. Exchanging long term debt that yields for reserves that yield IOER and stay on bank balance sheets and enter the economy slower and slower the more they do it. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
      • dlp211 6y ago
        Increasing money supply != printing money to get out of debt. As a countries population and prosperity grow, increasing money supply is expected. The US does not in large quantities print inflationary dollars, they print borrowed dollars. This is a subtle difference, but it is has profound implications. When the borrowed dollars are paid back, the money can be destroyed. Inflationary dollars by definition do not carry this trait.
        • ahnick 6y ago
          What is the difference between a borrowed dollar and an inflationary dollar?
          • dlp211 6y ago
            > When the borrowed dollars are paid back, the money can be destroyed. Inflationary dollars by definition do not carry this trait.
            • ahnick 6y ago
              I'm asking what the process of creating a borrowed dollar is versus the process of creating an inflationary dollar? Is there some financial instrument that the dollar is backed by that enables it to be paid back?
              • dlp211 6y ago
                The Fed takes collateral, usually treasuries or bonds, and then gives dollars, these are borrowed dollars, backed by an asset. They carry an interest rate and will be paid back to the Fed. Once a dollar is paid back, the borrowed dollar is destroyed. Inflationary dollars, which the US generally does not use this a lot, are dollars that the Fed would print and then give away. One way this is done is by paying interest on reserves, but this is not really a significant amount of money. In fact, I'd argue that we don't have enough inflationary dollars right now. If the US was printing to pay back our debt; we don't do this, we borrow more, hence the increasing national debt, and also the reason that people keep giving the US money; we would see consumer inflationary effects. If the Fed just printed money and sent checks to people, again we'd see consumer inflationary effects. We generally don't do these things, instead we either borrow money or we take collateral and provide loans. This doesn't mean that there aren't other effects in the economy by creating cheap borrowed money, but day-to-day hyper-inflation is not it.
  • charwalker 6y ago
    Luckily, until the world gives up the USD as reserve currency we might float it. Inflation spread over 3-4 billion spenders won't hit as hard as 400 million but it will definitely hit eventually...
• bertjk 6y ago
  >> the democrats don't know enough to read the writing on the wall. What are you suggesting exactly here? That the Fed is hell-bent on inducing general inflation, even at the cost of skyrocketing asset values?
  • metrix 6y ago
    My understanding is that the inflation is causing skyrocketing asset values, it just hasn't trickled down into the economy.
    • neilwilson 6y ago
      The action of central banks setting interest rates is an artificial market intervention that necessarily suppresses others asset prices by making risk free assets available that pay free money to banks and financial institutions. Once the central bank hits zero, asset prices return to their market clearing prices as participants chase yield
    • bwb 6y ago
      Not necessarily. So far it seems like the FED has gotten a lot better at preventing recessions / depressions. That might take some risk out of the market and cause valuations to go up given that risk is less. Probably a little of both, but it is an interesting time in economics for sure.
    • rjknight 6y ago
      We are all commenting on an internet forum run by a company whose entire purpose is to funnel money captured from the (predicted and actual) sale of valuable assets into the economy in the form of more new companies.
      • esarbe 6y ago
        This. So much.
    • Bombthecat 6y ago
      And it won't, how should it trickle down? By the 10 %? By the people entering pension? I will be K shaped, the rich get richer, pension people will be able to "enjoy" there pension and the poor wont be able to afford rent. Since big corps and funds will invest in housing to "save" money.
• monadic2 6y ago
  Since when are republicans for sane financing of anything? I thought that was just bullshit because it nearly always results in increased spending and cuts to services. They clearly just use this to con their base.
  • stubtoe 6y ago
    Exactly. It’s a transparent ruse they use to bash democrats. They don’t actually care about fiscal “conservatism”. The base falls for it every time.
    • evancox100 6y ago
      But the base doesn’t seem to want fiscal conservatism either, so the only ones who really fell for it were Democrats who took the Republicans’ position seriously, and the conservative intellectual movement pushing the policy.
    • hiram112 6y ago
      Yeah cause it's all those red cities and states that are demanding we bail out their pensions using Covid as an excuse for the fiscal implosions they've been warned about for decades. At the national level, both sides tend to claim one ideal and ignore it whenever they get into office in order to pay back their base - Republicans give tax breaks to the already-wealthy, Democrats tend to rain cash down on academia, school unions, legal industry, etc. At the state and locality level, it's generally the rule that more conservative states and counties are in better fiscal shape, and that's with typically far lower taxes.
      • stock_toaster 6y ago
        > At the state and locality level, it's generally the rule that more conservative states and counties are in better fiscal shape, and that's with typically far lower taxes. Only because the federal government redistributes wealth from coastal states to interior ones. https://www.forbes.com/sites/shaharziv/2020/05/12/blue-state-bailout-red-state-residents-received-largest-stimulus-checks-and-millions-in-federal-aid/#26d7df638352 https://www.forbes.com/sites/shaharziv/2020/05/12/blue-state...
• TuringNYC 6y ago
  They have another tool: Forward guidance. By indicating what they may likely do in the future, they can enact current market behavior and effects.