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You are going down a well trodden path on HN where the problems of intermittent power generation are waved away and declared as not an issue because there are o

You are going down a well trodden path on HN where the problems of intermittent power generation are waved away and declared as not an issue because there are other technologies that will be available real soon now that can solve this problem. Here you mention several: more grid connectivity, pumped storage, electrolysis of water. Future imagined technologies and/or infrastructure can't help you with balancing the power on the grid today. The recent rolling power outages in California came from the fact that they are too dependent on renewables and basically ran out of power generating capability as the sun was setting in the evening but everyone wanted to keep running their air conditioning.

dane-pgp 6y ago
> they are too dependent on renewables and basically ran out of power generating capability as the sun was setting Actually it's more complicated than that: "Several gas plants that were supposed to provide power failed to operate or tripped off, the CAISO said in a press conference last Wednesday. ... The CAISO also confirmed that demand was no greater than on previous very hot days."[0] You could equally make the case that the state was too dependent on unreliable gas plants. [0] https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/08/why-renewables-arent-reason-california-blackouts/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/08/why-renew...
- gwright 6y ago
  This is just another way of saying there the margin of error has been reduced to an unacceptable level. It is only going to get worse if California continues towards its renewable goals. I found this article helpful: https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-8-16-h7249j4l4p0o64aod9n6qltzirnm6i https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-8-16-h7249j4l4... From that article: Take out all of the solar and wind capacity, and California has only about 43 GW of capacity to meet demand that could well exceed that on any hot summer day. And to get to that 43 GW, you would need all other facilities up and running at absolutely full capacity with no scheduled or unscheduled outages, which is not realistic. Yes, you could try to import some power from the neighboring states, but at times of peak usage they probably need all of their own power. In short, you have put yourself in a position where regular intentional blackouts are inevitable. And, as more and more reliable fossil fuel and nuclear facilities get closed in favor of wind and solar, the problem looks set to worsen dramatically over the next several years
  - mturmon 6y ago
    What a tendentious blog that is! Here's another one from April on how COVID is no big deal: https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-4-15-what-is-the-proof-that-this-covid-19-thing-really-is-a-crisis https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-4-15-what-is-t... Doesn't it seem like the author is reasoning backward from a preferred conclusion, the way a lawyer might?
    - gwright 6y ago
      That article isn't about COVID in isolation it is about whether the drastic economic shutdown was an appropriate response. I think that is still a very debatable item, but data from Sweden, for example suggests that it wasn't a good tradeoff. There is also evidence that social distancing and masks would have been a reasonable approach vs full shutdown mode. I'm not sure what to make of your "reasoning backward" statement. Just not sure what it means.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
mturmon 6y ago
Pumped storage is not an imagined technology: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroel... It’s actually a really great idea. Here’s a white paper that’s especially relevant for California (forgive the hokey graphic in the executive summary): https://www.sdcwa.org/sites/default/files/White%20Paper%20-%20Pumped%20Energy%20Storage%20V.16.pdf https://www.sdcwa.org/sites/default/files/White%20Paper%20-%...
- gwright 6y ago
  Of course it isn't imagined, but it is also only feasible in very specific geographic locations. What is imagined is that it can be expanded at scale in order to offset the intermittent nature of renewables.
  - mturmon 6y ago
    In your original comment, you literally said pumped hydro (along with others) was an imagined technology. This is widely known to be false, and I wrote to correct that. > What is imagined is that it can be expanded at scale... No power generation method that we have is a universal solution, and as long as we have nation-states we shouldn't expect it to be. But pumped hydro has indeed been expanded at scale, and it is in operations, as the wikipedia page I linked demonstrates. It's not helpful to say things that are obviously false.
    - gwright 6y ago
      > In your original comment, you literally said pumped hydro (along with others) was an imagined technology. I also said: > Future imagined technologies and/or infrastructure Sure I could have been clearer but the entire thrust of my message was to say that you can't solve todays grid problems due to intermittent renewables with future technologies (not yet invented) and/or future infrastructure (not yet built). I certainly agree with you that pumped hydro is viable is some very specific locations. I would also insist that if you want to advocate for more renewables you better include the cost of a combined renewable + pumped hydro to save the intermittent supply problem. And if you are going to advocate for building the renewable generation in one location and the pumped hydro in another location, then you need to include the cost of the transmission lines to get the power to where it is needed and adjust your capacity calculations for the energy lost in transmission lines. Along the way you are going to have also plan for the litigation costs and delays the moment you suggest damming a valley to turn it into a reservoir. Almost every glowing report about renewables, especially if it is about how "cheap" it now is, fails to account for the alternate generation capacity that must be maintained/built or for the effective generating capacity (i.e. not the peak capacity on the sunniest or windiest day).

dane-pgp 6y ago

> they are too dependent on renewables and basically ran out of power generating capability as the sun was setting Actually it's more complicated than that: "Several gas plants that were supposed to provide power failed to operate or tripped off, the CAISO said in a press conference last Wednesday. ... The CAISO also confirmed that demand was no greater than on previous very hot days."[0] You could equally make the case that the state was too dependent on unreliable gas plants. [0] https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/08/why-renewables-arent-reason-california-blackouts/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/08/why-renew...

gwright 6y ago
This is just another way of saying there the margin of error has been reduced to an unacceptable level. It is only going to get worse if California continues towards its renewable goals. I found this article helpful: https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-8-16-h7249j4l4p0o64aod9n6qltzirnm6i https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-8-16-h7249j4l4... From that article: Take out all of the solar and wind capacity, and California has only about 43 GW of capacity to meet demand that could well exceed that on any hot summer day. And to get to that 43 GW, you would need all other facilities up and running at absolutely full capacity with no scheduled or unscheduled outages, which is not realistic. Yes, you could try to import some power from the neighboring states, but at times of peak usage they probably need all of their own power. In short, you have put yourself in a position where regular intentional blackouts are inevitable. And, as more and more reliable fossil fuel and nuclear facilities get closed in favor of wind and solar, the problem looks set to worsen dramatically over the next several years
- mturmon 6y ago
  What a tendentious blog that is! Here's another one from April on how COVID is no big deal: https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-4-15-what-is-the-proof-that-this-covid-19-thing-really-is-a-crisis https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-4-15-what-is-t... Doesn't it seem like the author is reasoning backward from a preferred conclusion, the way a lawyer might?
  - gwright 6y ago
    That article isn't about COVID in isolation it is about whether the drastic economic shutdown was an appropriate response. I think that is still a very debatable item, but data from Sweden, for example suggests that it wasn't a good tradeoff. There is also evidence that social distancing and masks would have been a reasonable approach vs full shutdown mode. I'm not sure what to make of your "reasoning backward" statement. Just not sure what it means.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

mturmon 6y ago

Pumped storage is not an imagined technology: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroel... It’s actually a really great idea. Here’s a white paper that’s especially relevant for California (forgive the hokey graphic in the executive summary): https://www.sdcwa.org/sites/default/files/White%20Paper%20-%20Pumped%20Energy%20Storage%20V.16.pdf https://www.sdcwa.org/sites/default/files/White%20Paper%20-%...

gwright 6y ago
Of course it isn't imagined, but it is also only feasible in very specific geographic locations. What is imagined is that it can be expanded at scale in order to offset the intermittent nature of renewables.
- mturmon 6y ago
  In your original comment, you literally said pumped hydro (along with others) was an imagined technology. This is widely known to be false, and I wrote to correct that. > What is imagined is that it can be expanded at scale... No power generation method that we have is a universal solution, and as long as we have nation-states we shouldn't expect it to be. But pumped hydro has indeed been expanded at scale, and it is in operations, as the wikipedia page I linked demonstrates. It's not helpful to say things that are obviously false.
  - gwright 6y ago
    > In your original comment, you literally said pumped hydro (along with others) was an imagined technology. I also said: > Future imagined technologies and/or infrastructure Sure I could have been clearer but the entire thrust of my message was to say that you can't solve todays grid problems due to intermittent renewables with future technologies (not yet invented) and/or future infrastructure (not yet built). I certainly agree with you that pumped hydro is viable is some very specific locations. I would also insist that if you want to advocate for more renewables you better include the cost of a combined renewable + pumped hydro to save the intermittent supply problem. And if you are going to advocate for building the renewable generation in one location and the pumped hydro in another location, then you need to include the cost of the transmission lines to get the power to where it is needed and adjust your capacity calculations for the energy lost in transmission lines. Along the way you are going to have also plan for the litigation costs and delays the moment you suggest damming a valley to turn it into a reservoir. Almost every glowing report about renewables, especially if it is about how "cheap" it now is, fails to account for the alternate generation capacity that must be maintained/built or for the effective generating capacity (i.e. not the peak capacity on the sunniest or windiest day).