3 ms·
There isn't an answer to that. We've already hit physical scaling limits for the old style (>40nm) of transistor manufacturing. Each successive generation sinc
by garmaine 6y ago
There isn't an answer to that. We've already hit physical scaling limits for the old style (>40nm) of transistor manufacturing. Each successive generation since then has employed new tricks to improve performance, and each jump in performance is labeled with a smaller process node size number. This can keep going so long as there are more optimizations to be found. And since not all process optimizations involve shrinking dimensions, it's not necessarily the case that we can predict from physical principles when this will end.
For example, stacked chips are increasingly being used but are fundamentally limited by heat transport. Maybe when we get into sub-1nm "sizes" the process nodes will be defined by how well they transport heat out of volumetric chip designs? Or we'll switch to twisted graphene superconductors for certain components which increases efficiency without necessarily shrinking feature sizes. Etc.
I'm just throwing those possibilities out. The point is we can't predict when scaling will ultimately end.