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All economists can do is project current trends into the future. Economists do not have -- to use your analogy -- a good theory for predicting when there will
by leftyted 6y ago
All economists can do is project current trends into the future.
Economists do not have -- to use your analogy -- a good theory for predicting when there will be a rock in the road. When economists act like they have such a theory is when people start rolling their eyes.
- TheCowboy 6y agoEconomics isn't about making some projection like "GDP number going down so will go down more!" Current behavior contradicts this outright. Economists are broadly warning against being too optimistic about interpreting the current upward trend as meaning that a speedy and full recovery, without any economic damage, is inevitable. There are many ideas and models about economic shocks and recessions that had important predictive value in demonstrating how this recession unfolded. It's not like this is something beyond understanding when you can compare the actions other countries took compared to the US.