5 ms·

Considering the unemployment rate, yes. Considering the stock market, no.

claydavisss 6y ago
Markets ride on a theme. The theme of this market is Jerome Powell holding the Elder Wand. So far this has held true, but at some point, it probably won't.
AnimalMuppet 6y ago
I believe that a recession is technically defined in terms of economic output. Not sure what the current statistics are on that, though I'd be surprised if they didn't indicate a recession.
ipnon 6y ago
It seems like we have 2 economies now. One that works, and one that doesn't. The one that works seems to be much more exclusive.
- lotsofpulp 6y ago
  It's been that way for decades. Top two quintiles and deciles have been far outpacing the rest, who are basically flat or in decline. Last few years were a little bit better for them, but that came to an end of course.
- x86_64Ubuntu 6y ago
  It's not so much 2 economies as it's that we injected 2-4 Trillion dollars into the stock market to prop it up.
- munificent 6y ago
  As of 2013, the top 1% of households owned 38% of stock market wealth. The top 10% own 81% of stock wealth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_United_States#U.S._stock_market_ownership_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_Unite...
mschuster91 6y ago
There's an easy explanation for that. The stock that is driving the stock market boom is stuff that can replace "inefficiencies" in old school companies with massive scale and lots of cheap staff - Amazon being the best example. They, unlike classic retailers, are not bound by long term expensive rents and high amounts of (relatively) expensive staff, they can sell, even including delivery costs, much cheaper product - and for perishable goods they have the advantage that they can exactly steer demand with supply which means that unlike a traditional supermarket where people expect fresh groceries at 8 in the evening which leads to a LOT of waste due to reserves held across different locations in a city, they have one fulfillment center outside of the city that needs way less buffer.
qppo 6y ago
Less than 50% of Americans have any stake in the stock market, which is a good reason we base economic forecasting on the behavior of GDP and not market indices. Although if we were really smart we'd weigh financial services less, since that tips the scales upward when it isn't building as much value.

Markets ride on a theme. The theme of this market is Jerome Powell holding the Elder Wand. So far this has held true, but at some point, it probably won't.

AnimalMuppet 6y ago

I believe that a recession is technically defined in terms of economic output. Not sure what the current statistics are on that, though I'd be surprised if they didn't indicate a recession.

ipnon 6y ago

It seems like we have 2 economies now. One that works, and one that doesn't. The one that works seems to be much more exclusive.

lotsofpulp 6y ago
It's been that way for decades. Top two quintiles and deciles have been far outpacing the rest, who are basically flat or in decline. Last few years were a little bit better for them, but that came to an end of course.
x86_64Ubuntu 6y ago
It's not so much 2 economies as it's that we injected 2-4 Trillion dollars into the stock market to prop it up.
munificent 6y ago
As of 2013, the top 1% of households owned 38% of stock market wealth. The top 10% own 81% of stock wealth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_United_States#U.S._stock_market_ownership_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_Unite...

mschuster91 6y ago

There's an easy explanation for that. The stock that is driving the stock market boom is stuff that can replace "inefficiencies" in old school companies with massive scale and lots of cheap staff - Amazon being the best example. They, unlike classic retailers, are not bound by long term expensive rents and high amounts of (relatively) expensive staff, they can sell, even including delivery costs, much cheaper product - and for perishable goods they have the advantage that they can exactly steer demand with supply which means that unlike a traditional supermarket where people expect fresh groceries at 8 in the evening which leads to a LOT of waste due to reserves held across different locations in a city, they have one fulfillment center outside of the city that needs way less buffer.

qppo 6y ago

Less than 50% of Americans have any stake in the stock market, which is a good reason we base economic forecasting on the behavior of GDP and not market indices. Although if we were really smart we'd weigh financial services less, since that tips the scales upward when it isn't building as much value.