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Are we actually in a recession right now?

by hbosch 6y ago

jug 6y ago
Was just about to say this. My equity funds are back to ≈85% before pandemic on average. One of them is better than before it. And that is coming from a very highly valued market due for a correction for years.
- umanwizard 6y ago
  Whether we’re in a recession is not determined by stock prices. There were recessions before the stock market was invented.
- realmod 6y ago
  Stock market =/= economy. I think a big part of the gains is that everyone is flush with cash with nowhere to invest since the interest rates are basically non-existant/negative.
  - idoh 6y ago
    The stock market isn't the economy right now, but in the long run it is meant to approximate the net present value of a big chunk of the economy.
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  Stocks are being buoyed by interventions from the Fed. There's a decoupling of the stock market and the economy. Those of us in Tech don't feel the pain much, but in the wider economy layoffs and pain are beginning to spread. Companies that took PPP money had to agree not to lay off people until the fall. Those stipulations end soon and there are large employers (airlines, banks, etc.) that have already announced that they'll have large layoffs in the next month or two. Add in small businesses that are going under (restaurants being hit hard, for example).
- lostmsu 6y ago
  Many here are doing much better, because they invested in specific tech.
glouwbug 6y ago
Considering the unemployment rate, yes. Considering the stock market, no.
- claydavisss 6y ago
  Markets ride on a theme. The theme of this market is Jerome Powell holding the Elder Wand. So far this has held true, but at some point, it probably won't.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  I believe that a recession is technically defined in terms of economic output. Not sure what the current statistics are on that, though I'd be surprised if they didn't indicate a recession.
- ipnon 6y ago
  It seems like we have 2 economies now. One that works, and one that doesn't. The one that works seems to be much more exclusive.
  - lotsofpulp 6y ago
    It's been that way for decades. Top two quintiles and deciles have been far outpacing the rest, who are basically flat or in decline. Last few years were a little bit better for them, but that came to an end of course.
  - x86_64Ubuntu 6y ago
    It's not so much 2 economies as it's that we injected 2-4 Trillion dollars into the stock market to prop it up.
  - munificent 6y ago
    As of 2013, the top 1% of households owned 38% of stock market wealth. The top 10% own 81% of stock wealth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_United_States#U.S._stock_market_ownership_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_Unite...
ipnon 6y ago
Yes. We have experienced 2 quarters of negative GDP.[1] This is the conventional definition. [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

Are we actually in a recession right now?

by hbosch 6y ago

Are we actually in a recession right now?

jug 6y ago

Was just about to say this. My equity funds are back to ≈85% before pandemic on average. One of them is better than before it. And that is coming from a very highly valued market due for a correction for years.

umanwizard 6y ago
Whether we’re in a recession is not determined by stock prices. There were recessions before the stock market was invented.
realmod 6y ago
Stock market =/= economy. I think a big part of the gains is that everyone is flush with cash with nowhere to invest since the interest rates are basically non-existant/negative.
- idoh 6y ago
  The stock market isn't the economy right now, but in the long run it is meant to approximate the net present value of a big chunk of the economy.
UncleOxidant 6y ago
Stocks are being buoyed by interventions from the Fed. There's a decoupling of the stock market and the economy. Those of us in Tech don't feel the pain much, but in the wider economy layoffs and pain are beginning to spread. Companies that took PPP money had to agree not to lay off people until the fall. Those stipulations end soon and there are large employers (airlines, banks, etc.) that have already announced that they'll have large layoffs in the next month or two. Add in small businesses that are going under (restaurants being hit hard, for example).
lostmsu 6y ago
Many here are doing much better, because they invested in specific tech.

glouwbug 6y ago

Considering the unemployment rate, yes. Considering the stock market, no.

claydavisss 6y ago
Markets ride on a theme. The theme of this market is Jerome Powell holding the Elder Wand. So far this has held true, but at some point, it probably won't.
AnimalMuppet 6y ago
I believe that a recession is technically defined in terms of economic output. Not sure what the current statistics are on that, though I'd be surprised if they didn't indicate a recession.
ipnon 6y ago
It seems like we have 2 economies now. One that works, and one that doesn't. The one that works seems to be much more exclusive.
- lotsofpulp 6y ago
  It's been that way for decades. Top two quintiles and deciles have been far outpacing the rest, who are basically flat or in decline. Last few years were a little bit better for them, but that came to an end of course.
- x86_64Ubuntu 6y ago
  It's not so much 2 economies as it's that we injected 2-4 Trillion dollars into the stock market to prop it up.
- munificent 6y ago
  As of 2013, the top 1% of households owned 38% of stock market wealth. The top 10% own 81% of stock wealth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_United_States#U.S._stock_market_ownership_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_Unite...

ipnon 6y ago

Yes. We have experienced 2 quarters of negative GDP.[1] This is the conventional definition. [1] https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

deleted 6y ago

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