5 ms·

The Draper Curve

30 points by kdivvela 16y ago

hallowtech 16y ago
I wonder what the Donald Draper curve is like.
- sp332 16y ago
  A 2600 Hz sine wave! rimshot
- technomancy 16y ago
  Personally I was hoping for John Draper.
nikcub 16y ago
I can't think of where this holds true outside of the dotcom bubble. For eg. the curve with social just keeps going up
- zyfo 16y ago
  The second sentence of yours hardly speaks against a hype curve. Rather the opposite, given recent valuations and the little market doubt/backlash.
enko 16y ago
This looks like a graphical interpretation of the well-known quote: "We tend to overestimate the short term impact of a technology and underestimate the long term impact." (Dr. Francis Collins - Director of the Human Genome Project)
alextingle 16y ago
Where's the historical evidence for this? Can I draw a graph like that for steam engines? The plough? Telephones? Without that it's just an optimistic line on a whiteboard that means "there won't be another dot.com crash, this time it's to real".
- mitko 16y ago
  also, past performance is not guarantee for future success- otherwise there would be much fewer banks bankrupting.
- jmount 16y ago
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania
nprincigalli 16y ago
Better explained here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle and some examples here: http://www.floor.nl/ebiz/gartnershypecycle.htm http://www.floor.nl/ebiz/gartnershypecycle.htm
dffhhfhnk 16y ago
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sloanie 16y ago
Was there, mans a genius. Enough said.
rogerallen 16y ago
Did he really claim ownership of the idea? Sounds exactly like what Moore pointed out in 1991 via "Crossing the Chasm". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm

The Draper Curve

30 points by kdivvela 16y ago

hallowtech 16y ago

I wonder what the Donald Draper curve is like.

sp332 16y ago
A 2600 Hz sine wave! rimshot
technomancy 16y ago
Personally I was hoping for John Draper.

nikcub 16y ago

I can't think of where this holds true outside of the dotcom bubble. For eg. the curve with social just keeps going up

zyfo 16y ago
The second sentence of yours hardly speaks against a hype curve. Rather the opposite, given recent valuations and the little market doubt/backlash.

enko 16y ago

This looks like a graphical interpretation of the well-known quote: "We tend to overestimate the short term impact of a technology and underestimate the long term impact." (Dr. Francis Collins - Director of the Human Genome Project)

alextingle 16y ago

Where's the historical evidence for this? Can I draw a graph like that for steam engines? The plough? Telephones? Without that it's just an optimistic line on a whiteboard that means "there won't be another dot.com crash, this time it's to real".

mitko 16y ago
also, past performance is not guarantee for future success- otherwise there would be much fewer banks bankrupting.
jmount 16y ago
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_Mania

nprincigalli 16y ago

Better explained here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle and some examples here: http://www.floor.nl/ebiz/gartnershypecycle.htm http://www.floor.nl/ebiz/gartnershypecycle.htm

dffhhfhnk 16y ago

========= http://www.findsoso.com http://www.findsoso.com ====== free shipping competitive price any size available The website wholesale for many kinds of fashion shoes, like the nike,jordan,prada, also including the jeans,shirts,bags,hat and the decorations. All the products are free shipping, and the the price is competitive, and also can accept the paypal payment.,after the payment, can ship within short time. BEST QUALITY GUARANTEE!! SAFTY & HONESTY GUARANTEE!! FAST & PROMPT DELIVERY GUARANTEE

sloanie 16y ago

Was there, mans a genius. Enough said.

rogerallen 16y ago

Did he really claim ownership of the idea? Sounds exactly like what Moore pointed out in 1991 via "Crossing the Chasm". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm