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"...when it comes out in 2021." My rule of thumb when it comes to all breathless headlines around battery technology is that "I'll believe it when I see it". I
by dgritsko 6y ago
"...when it comes out in 2021."
My rule of thumb when it comes to all breathless headlines around battery technology is that "I'll believe it when I see it". It's one thing to achieve these specs for batteries when n = (small number), but can they be affordably built at scale?
- clouddrover 6y ago> I'll believe it when I see it See it: https://www.motortrend.com/cars/lucid/air/2021/2021-lucid-air-first-ride-review-range-test/ https://www.motortrend.com/cars/lucid/air/2021/2021-lucid-ai... > can they be affordably built at scale? The Lucid Air is an expensive luxury car. It's affordable in the same way that all luxury cars are affordable: not very. It's not a high volume vehicle. They will be selling a smaller battery version eventually which will be cheaper but still at luxury car prices.
- zwily 6y agoAre they achieving the additional range by just using a bigger battery? Or new tech/chemistry? Removing weight from the rest of the car? Better aerodynamics? If it’s just a bigger battery, it’s not all that interesting. I’m sure Elon could build a prototype S with 1000 miles range if he felt like it. It wouldn’t make sense though.
- clouddrover 6y ago> Are they achieving the additional range by using a bigger battery? Removing weight from the rest of the car? Better aerodynamics? Yes. This is discussed in the article.
- Sohcahtoa82 6y agoIt's even in the damn title of the article!
- mcot2 6y agoThis is the best interview I have seen with Peter Rawlinson which will address most of your questions. He was a chief engineer at Lotus and also at Tesla for the Model S and he is now CEO of Lucid. He is the real deal. https://youtu.be/RWc2urOyCVw https://youtu.be/RWc2urOyCVw
- jcheng 6y agoI feel bad even making the comparison, but interestingly, the disastrous Faraday Future was cofounded by Nick Sampson, who was also a chief engineer at Lotus and then Director Vehicle & Chassis Engineering at Tesla for the Model S.
- gamblor956 6y agoIt's not a bigger battery. It's a more efficient battery.
- i_am_proteus 6y agoAgreed; this certainly falls under the category of "huge if true," and in this specific case, also "true if huge."
- Mvandenbergh 6y agoAll technology cost and performance forecasts should be indexed by their TRL. This should also be applied to all stories about new fission reactor technologies. Comparing a cost that's been validated across many units over decades with the "should cost" for a design that hasn't even had gone critical in a prototype is almost meaningless.
- voodooranger 6y agoTRL == Technology Readiness Level https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level
- nick_kline 6y agoThere's no magic required here, people. Batteries, engines, just tiny changes on existing Teslas. This car is dooable by Tesla and by third parties like Lucid Air just replicating some of the things Tesla has done and making small improvements. 1. Battery capacity: Tesla had 100kw cars 4 years ago. 13% increase - easy, even within Tesla's grasp, they just have not bothered. 2. Efficiency and range - this is just a small improvement on what the Tesla model S has, add more batteries. The Lucid Air is bigger than a model 3 and closer to an S. The S already has 400 miles. Tesla improved on the original 2012 (yes, those are 8 years old!) model S' range by using the more efficient model 3 engines on the S. The S has 100kwh currently. 3. The model 3 has different batteries than the S, apparently they have a bit higher capacity in the 3 than in the S. All Tesla has to do to give the S another boost is switch to using the model 3 batteries, add a few more. The one downside of the 3 batteries is supposed to be they have less max power, so less acceleration? Tesla is going to have 'battery day' soon when they will talk about their next generation batteries, and perhaps talk about S improvements. 4. Manufacturing, and especially getting enough batteries - this is where Tesla is likely really ahead. It's hard to make cars in volume, even expensive ones. But getting enough batteries for a large fleet of cars is the early 21st century unobtanium. Every other car company that ones to make large volume EVs can't do it. Where everyone is at least Japan and Europe and the US. China might be able to pull this off, too soon to say.
- WorldMaker 6y ago2021 starts in less than 5 months. I think a lot of people are still so used to seeing 202x dates as "far future" that it's really easy right now to lose perspective that that future is already here.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- mmrezaie 6y agoOh come on, you jinxed it. Now, 2020 will never finish!
- 14 6y agoUnless it’s actually the year 2525, and we are all just trying to stay alive, but we are in a virtual reality meant to hide the truth from our eyes. Oh what a time to be alive
- airstrike 6y agoMy pet theory is we're part of a simulation to understand whether 2 days is the optimal weekend length for the future of mankind.
- kipchak 6y agoSo far is the evidence pointing towards more or less than two days?
- airstrike 6y agoWould be easier to ask the people living in the 3-day simulation, but I don't know how to reach them... I suppose it depends on whether everyone is gone for the weekend on the day they are supposed to spot the asteroid that would destroy life on Earth in 2431
- Red_Leaves_Flyy 6y ago
- gibolt 6y agoLucid's led by the Lead Engineer from the Tesla Model S. The range is from official EPA testing (pre-production). They have already produced a fleet of ~40. There is nothing to indicate that they won't be able to achieve this in production of their low volume luxury vehicle.
- jeremyw 6y agoThey don't have EPA testing yet. They used a third-party, FEV North America, with EPA-like methods to arrive at 517 miles.