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The problem with betting against you here is the question of "what fraction of the possible worlds in which AGI exists are worlds where I am alive to care about
by JoshuaDavid 6y ago
The problem with betting against you here is the question of "what fraction of the possible worlds in which AGI exists are worlds where I am alive to care about collecting from you, and care about money, as compared to those worlds where AGI does not exist in 50 years".
That said, I would take the flip side of this bet to be settled at the end of the 50 years, for at least 90% chance of AIs able to create hollywood-esque movies within the next 50 years, though possibly not for AI plumbers in that time frame. For that matter, I would put at least 10% on a movie with an AI-generated script having global box office numbers topping $1B by the end of this decade.
- onionisafruit 6y agoOn the other hand, a world with rapid tech innovation is the only world where I'm alive in 50 years. So I'm probably best off betting on AGI existing 50 years from now. I think laws are such that my heirs don't have to make good on my wagers.
- JoshuaDavid 6y agoLaws are indeed such. It would be kind of cool if long-term bets were possible to do, but the value of winning or losing bets far in the future is so strongly impacted by your personal discount rate and likelihood of living to see the outcome that making any gain off of those kind of bets is impractical pretty much no matter how sure you are.
- Cyphase 6y agoNot your heirs per se, but your estate would have an obligation to make good.