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Comparing historical projections for a variety of topics seems like a decent point of reference. Population growth and flight seem vastly more tractable problem
by thoughtstheseus 6y ago
Comparing historical projections for a variety of topics seems like a decent point of reference. Population growth and flight seem vastly more tractable problems, in hindsight if not at the time then AGI does, yet estimates were way off by many.
- computerphage 6y ago> Indeed, eight years before Orville and Wilbur Wright took their home-built flyer to the sandy dunes of Kitty Hawk, cranked up the engine, and took off into the history books, Lord Kelvin, the President of the Royal Society of England made a forceful declaration. "Heavier than air flying machines are impossible," said this very powerful man of science....Rumor has it Lord Kelvin was slightly in error. https://www.nasa.gov/audience/formedia/speeches/fg_kitty_hawk_12.17.03.html https://www.nasa.gov/audience/formedia/speeches/fg_kitty_haw...