12 ms·
Alex Irpan's post inspired the AGI timelines discussion at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k w
by stuhlmueller 6y ago
Alex Irpan's post inspired the AGI timelines discussion at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k which shows 12 people's timelines as probability distributions over future years and their reasoning behind the distributions.
(I work on Elicit, the tool used in the thread.)
- 1wheel 6y agoHave you tried plotting the CDFs? Might be easier to read than the overlaid areas.
- stuhlmueller 6y agoGood idea. We'll integrate that into Elicit in a few weeks. In the meantime, here's a Colab that shows the CDFs: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1pl3fIaeIKIS77IDM_rnaFUyPpyRepFmT?usp=sharing https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1pl3fIaeIKIS77IDM_rn...