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Putting AGI in the same field as population growth and flight is disingenuous. They are entirely different things, and the rapid advancement of one means absolu

Putting AGI in the same field as population growth and flight is disingenuous. They are entirely different things, and the rapid advancement of one means absolutely nothing about the advancement or even possibility of the other. Overcoming physical limitations is one thing. An intelligent being creating something equally or more as intelligent as itself? And obviously I don't mean reproducing. Creating an entirely new class of thing which has intelligence equal to the creator is very different to using the forces of nature to give you an edge over gravity.

melling 6y ago
The point with the population is that we will have 7-9 billion people, with more people doing research, engineering, etc. how many scientists were there in 1900? We will figure out how the brain works, make better transistors, develop better algorithms, etc An AI “space race” between the US and China, for instance, will push the field forward over the next decade.
- TaylorAlexander 6y ago
  Collaboration also pushes this field forward. Lots of great AI research coming from China and the US and luckily lots of it is shared openly. IMO that’s how to maximize the rate of innovation.
- sheepdestroyer 6y ago
  Did you miss the news where average IQ is lowering across the board due to various poorly understood factors (increase of CO2 levels, endocrine disruptors, etc...). We are getting at a massive amount of dumb people ala idiocracy, not sure if that also means more smart scientists in total.
  - lostmsu 6y ago
    If there's a drop in IQ, right now it is not even comparable to the population rise.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
thoughtstheseus 6y ago
Comparing historical projections for a variety of topics seems like a decent point of reference. Population growth and flight seem vastly more tractable problems, in hindsight if not at the time then AGI does, yet estimates were way off by many.
- computerphage 6y ago
  > Indeed, eight years before Orville and Wilbur Wright took their home-built flyer to the sandy dunes of Kitty Hawk, cranked up the engine, and took off into the history books, Lord Kelvin, the President of the Royal Society of England made a forceful declaration. "Heavier than air flying machines are impossible," said this very powerful man of science....Rumor has it Lord Kelvin was slightly in error. https://www.nasa.gov/audience/formedia/speeches/fg_kitty_hawk_12.17.03.html https://www.nasa.gov/audience/formedia/speeches/fg_kitty_haw...

melling 6y ago

The point with the population is that we will have 7-9 billion people, with more people doing research, engineering, etc. how many scientists were there in 1900? We will figure out how the brain works, make better transistors, develop better algorithms, etc An AI “space race” between the US and China, for instance, will push the field forward over the next decade.

TaylorAlexander 6y ago
Collaboration also pushes this field forward. Lots of great AI research coming from China and the US and luckily lots of it is shared openly. IMO that’s how to maximize the rate of innovation.
sheepdestroyer 6y ago
Did you miss the news where average IQ is lowering across the board due to various poorly understood factors (increase of CO2 levels, endocrine disruptors, etc...). We are getting at a massive amount of dumb people ala idiocracy, not sure if that also means more smart scientists in total.
- lostmsu 6y ago
  If there's a drop in IQ, right now it is not even comparable to the population rise.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

thoughtstheseus 6y ago

Comparing historical projections for a variety of topics seems like a decent point of reference. Population growth and flight seem vastly more tractable problems, in hindsight if not at the time then AGI does, yet estimates were way off by many.

computerphage 6y ago
> Indeed, eight years before Orville and Wilbur Wright took their home-built flyer to the sandy dunes of Kitty Hawk, cranked up the engine, and took off into the history books, Lord Kelvin, the President of the Royal Society of England made a forceful declaration. "Heavier than air flying machines are impossible," said this very powerful man of science....Rumor has it Lord Kelvin was slightly in error. https://www.nasa.gov/audience/formedia/speeches/fg_kitty_hawk_12.17.03.html https://www.nasa.gov/audience/formedia/speeches/fg_kitty_haw...