3 ms·
"10% chance by 2045, 50% chance by 2050" I'm really pessimistic about the next 30 years, but really optimistic about the next 5 after that.
by ouid 6y ago
"10% chance by 2045, 50% chance by 2050"
I'm really pessimistic about the next 30 years, but really optimistic about the next 5 after that.
- computerphage 6y agoFrom the post: "I also noticed that my 2015 prediction placed 10% to 50% in a 5 year range, and 50% to 90% in a 20 year range. AGI is a long-tailed event, and there’s a real possibility it’s never viable, but a 5-20 split is absurdly skewed. I’m adjusting accordingly."