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more children had been getting polio from polio vaccines than getting it in the wild for a long time
by tempsy 6y ago
more children had been getting polio from polio vaccines than getting it in the wild for a long time
- eloff 6y agoPossibly, but the vaccines have prevented many orders of magnitude more cases: "Since 2000, more than 10 billion doses of OPV have been administered to nearly 3 billion children worldwide. As a result, more than 13 million cases of polio have been prevented, and the disease has been reduced by more than 99%. During that time, 24 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks occurred in 21 countries, resulting in fewer than 760 VDPV cases."[1] [1] https://www.who.int/westernpacific/news/q-a-detail/what-is-vaccine-derived-polio https://www.who.int/westernpacific/news/q-a-detail/what-is-v...
- tboyd47 6y agoThere were only 350,000 cases in 1988, when the vaccine was first deployed, and 5 billion people on Earth then versus 7 billion now. How do 350,000 cases turn into 13 million, according to the WHO? [1] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelitis https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/poliomyelit...
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago350,000 cases/year * 32 years = 11.2 million cases, which is in the right ballpark, assuming we're counting from 1988.
- gus_massa 6y ago350,000 cases/year * 32 years = 11.2 million cases They may have some more precise method, but with this estimation 11 or 13 millions doesn't seams to be too off.
- vanderZwan 6y agoYou know what they say: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Based on what data do you make this statement?
- rowanseymour 6y agoMany poorer countries have relied on cheaper forms of the polio vaccine with a weakened virus, which can sometimes cause small outbreaks. Ironically this fact is often used the anti-vaxxers as an argument against vaccines.. when it's only been true because polio vaccination has been so successful at eradicating the real virus which was causing considerably more problems.
- tialaramex 6y agoThe oral vaccine is not only cheaper it also works better. This means if you have endemic Polio it can make good sense to deploy OPV even knowing that there is risk of it reverting. The rich industrialised countries that switched to the boring inactivated vaccine don't have endemic Polio so the risk structure is different (as well as being able to afford the more expensive product). It's not entirely clear why OPV is more effective, but perhaps it matters that you eat it (when I was a child it was administered as a sugar lump) and so the attenuated virus is entering the body via the gut, exactly where a real working polio virus infects people. The more expensive killed vaccine is injected into a muscle instead.
- tgb 6y agoI was surprised too, but the WHO backs up the existence of "vaccine-associated paralytic polio", though I'm finding some conflicting numbers it's on the order of 1 in a million paralysis cases per vaccine. That presumably outpaces wild polio paralysis cases due to the non-existence of wild polio, in certain regions. WHO evens says it's possible for others to catch the paralysis from close contact with a recently-vaccinated individual, though it's never spread beyond that. https://www.who.int/immunization/diseases/poliomyelitis/endgame_objective2/oral_polio_vaccine/VAPPandcVDPVFactSheet-Feb2015.pdf https://www.who.int/immunization/diseases/poliomyelitis/endg...
- nsgi 6y agocVDPV is the one that's the big problem. You can see how many cases are occurring here: http://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/this-week/ http://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/this-week/
- celticninja 6y agoI don't know about 'for a long time' but for a certain time frame this is true[0]. However we are talking about there being 21 cases of this occurring compared to pre-eradication infection levels in the 100's of thousands per year. So whilst your statement is sort of true, it is willfully misleading. [0]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/06/28/534403083/mutant-strains-of-polio-vaccine-now-cause-more-paralysis-than-wild-polio https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/06/28/5344030...
- yokaze 6y agoIf you consider three years a long time... [1] Or are you speaking of a particular area with poor sanitation and low vaccination rates in the world? And to be clear about it, children are not getting it by getting vaccinated, unvaccinated people can get it from recently vaccinated ones. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#Vaccine-induced_polio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#Vaccine-induced_...
- werber 6y agoThat just got a post COVID doomsday scenario playing out in my head, I had never considered being contagious due to being vaccinated.
- vanderZwan 6y agoYou are not going to be vaccinated by a weakened COVID virus, so worrying about that is absurd.
- werber 6y agoI totally get it, that was just a gut reaction, not a valid point of my part.
- dilippkumar 6y agoMy understanding is that the vaccination candidates are all taking some other virus and splicing it to add the coronavirus’s spike protien to it. The idea is that the body will (hopefully) learn to identify the spike and mount an immune response to that spike protien. Then, when a real coronavirus comes along, the body responds to the spike protien on that virus. PS: I’m not in the field, I might have missed some vaccination effort that’s using the real virus itself.
- nsgi 6y agoThe coronavirus vaccine is unlikely to be a live attenuated one, or if it is it will most likely be one that cannot cause the disease.
- 6y ago
- renewiltord 6y agoWell, yes, that's what it means to get close to eradicating a wild disease. There's a sort of hysteresis effect so it's hard to instantly swap to not vaccinating and you want to ensure that there are no local populations with wild transmission.
- gus_massa 6y agoOversimplifying, after some years without cases, you change from the oral (attenuated virus) vaccine to the injectable (totally inactivated) vaccine, to solve the risk of the vaccine derived cases.
- SketchySeaBeast 6y agoThis feels like a "Less people are dying in the car crush, but now people are getting hurt from seat-belts" kind of problem.
- mcv 6y agoIt kinda is, with the added issue that a few more years of seat belts might eradicate car crashes forever.