4 ms·

You're not focusing on the other side of his statement, where costs for housing, healthcare and education have also skyrocketed, along with the development of t

by novok 6y ago

You're not focusing on the other side of his statement, where costs for housing, healthcare and education have also skyrocketed, along with the development of the two income trap. What he said isn't controversial for most academics studying this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two-Income_Trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two-Income_Trap https://medium.com/@6pranavk/insight-of-the-day-cost-disease-c14f50c1cd2e https://medium.com/@6pranavk/insight-of-the-day-cost-disease...

wernercd 6y ago
And neither of you are focusing on the "extra" stuff you don't "need" - high speed phones, large TVs, cars with air bags, etc. Want to compare to 1970? Then live with those restrictions and you'll probably have enough money to pay for insurance, college, etc.
- skohan 6y ago
  The numbers don't add up. This is essentially the math which blames avocado toast for why millennials aren't buying homes. If the price of university has doubled relative to median wages in the past 50 years, you're going to have to buy an awful lot of smartphones every year to account for that difference.
  - s1artibartfast 6y ago
    The numbers add up when you add in healthcare, which has captured an increasing portion of workers compensation.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
- sagarm 6y ago
  This is simply not true. Education, healthcare, and housing costs have far outpaced inflation.
  - mac01021 6y ago
    People didn't buy nearly as much of those three things in 1970.
    - skohan 6y ago
      What do you mean? The home ownership is on the decline, especially among younger people, and "one unit of education" (i.e. a bachelors') hasn't changed. Yes more people are going to university on average, but the price of higher ed is not regulated by scarcity.
- vkou 6y ago
  This is complete nonsense. Large TVs in 2020 cost just as much as small TVs did in the 70s (if not less), adding air bags to a car costs mere hundreds of dollars, and is ammortized over 20 years, and cancelling your phone plan is not going to let you support a family of four on a single blue-collar income. Shit, cancelling your phone plan won't even compensate for the annual growth in your health insurance premiums - which is something that compounds every year.
  - wernercd 6y ago
    "Air bags is amortized over 20 years" Cars don't last 20 years, generally... 5-10. And airbags are one of hundreds of "improvements". TVs are an example of the plethora of technology that most homes have. From microwaves to air conditioners to cell phones... "Canceling one thing isn't going to support your family" Which is why I didn't mention one thing... I mentioned a handful of things. A host of "modern conveniences" that add up. Education, health insurance and other things cost more? Those are also things that the government has stepped in to make more affordable as well... which is a massive topic in of itself. My main point stands... quality of life and cost of life has risen with hundreds of costs that add up (a mere 100 for an air bag... a mere couple bucks a month for data on your phone... a mere 5 for text messages... a mere 100 for a microwave... etc.etc.etc.etc). Remove all the "extra" stuff that's standard today compared to 50 years ago and even with outliers (IE Health Insurance), you'll still be much closer to being able to afford the same quality of life as "way back then".
valuearb 6y ago
The average home size in the 1970s was 1,500 square feet. It’s around 2,700 square feet today. And the percentage with air-conditioning, two car garages, pools, dish washers, etc have increased significantly as well.
- novok 6y ago
  Go price out a 1500 sqft house built in the 1930s-1970s today and you'll see that it's still significantly more expensive than it's inflation adjusted price back then, especially in the larger cities where there are jobs. And that 1970s house today is less valuable than it was back in the 1970s too, but that is harder to evaluate in aggregate. Jobs also used to be more distributed, so the need to move was less back then. AC & Dishwashers are also only a few thousand dollars of value, mostly on the AC side. The rest are relatively luxury items.
  - valuearb 6y ago
    If 1,500 SF homes cost more now than they did in the 70s, how is the average person affording 2,700 SF homes today? And low end AC & Dishwashers can be had for only a few thousand dollars NOW. Back in the 70s the cheapest ones were still expensive enough to require an upper middle class income.
    - skohan 6y ago
      > how is the average person affording 2,700 SF homes today? They're not. Home ownership is currently at about the same level it was in the 90's, declining from a boom in the 2000's driven by sub-prime lending, but if you look at generational differences, everyone younger than baby boomers is basically owning homes at much lower rates. https://journal.firsttuesday.us/bad-news-for-tomorrows-homeownership-rate/50222/ https://journal.firsttuesday.us/bad-news-for-tomorrows-homeo...
      - valuearb 6y ago
        2014 was six years ago after a sharp recession. Current home ownership is near all time highs. https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf So why is the average home size nearly double the size in the 70s?
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

by novok 6y ago

wernercd 6y ago

And neither of you are focusing on the "extra" stuff you don't "need" - high speed phones, large TVs, cars with air bags, etc. Want to compare to 1970? Then live with those restrictions and you'll probably have enough money to pay for insurance, college, etc.

skohan 6y ago
The numbers don't add up. This is essentially the math which blames avocado toast for why millennials aren't buying homes. If the price of university has doubled relative to median wages in the past 50 years, you're going to have to buy an awful lot of smartphones every year to account for that difference.
- s1artibartfast 6y ago
  The numbers add up when you add in healthcare, which has captured an increasing portion of workers compensation.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
sagarm 6y ago
This is simply not true. Education, healthcare, and housing costs have far outpaced inflation.
- mac01021 6y ago
  People didn't buy nearly as much of those three things in 1970.
  - skohan 6y ago
    What do you mean? The home ownership is on the decline, especially among younger people, and "one unit of education" (i.e. a bachelors') hasn't changed. Yes more people are going to university on average, but the price of higher ed is not regulated by scarcity.
vkou 6y ago
This is complete nonsense. Large TVs in 2020 cost just as much as small TVs did in the 70s (if not less), adding air bags to a car costs mere hundreds of dollars, and is ammortized over 20 years, and cancelling your phone plan is not going to let you support a family of four on a single blue-collar income. Shit, cancelling your phone plan won't even compensate for the annual growth in your health insurance premiums - which is something that compounds every year.
- wernercd 6y ago
  "Air bags is amortized over 20 years" Cars don't last 20 years, generally... 5-10. And airbags are one of hundreds of "improvements". TVs are an example of the plethora of technology that most homes have. From microwaves to air conditioners to cell phones... "Canceling one thing isn't going to support your family" Which is why I didn't mention one thing... I mentioned a handful of things. A host of "modern conveniences" that add up. Education, health insurance and other things cost more? Those are also things that the government has stepped in to make more affordable as well... which is a massive topic in of itself. My main point stands... quality of life and cost of life has risen with hundreds of costs that add up (a mere 100 for an air bag... a mere couple bucks a month for data on your phone... a mere 5 for text messages... a mere 100 for a microwave... etc.etc.etc.etc). Remove all the "extra" stuff that's standard today compared to 50 years ago and even with outliers (IE Health Insurance), you'll still be much closer to being able to afford the same quality of life as "way back then".

valuearb 6y ago

The average home size in the 1970s was 1,500 square feet. It’s around 2,700 square feet today. And the percentage with air-conditioning, two car garages, pools, dish washers, etc have increased significantly as well.

novok 6y ago
Go price out a 1500 sqft house built in the 1930s-1970s today and you'll see that it's still significantly more expensive than it's inflation adjusted price back then, especially in the larger cities where there are jobs. And that 1970s house today is less valuable than it was back in the 1970s too, but that is harder to evaluate in aggregate. Jobs also used to be more distributed, so the need to move was less back then. AC & Dishwashers are also only a few thousand dollars of value, mostly on the AC side. The rest are relatively luxury items.
- valuearb 6y ago
  If 1,500 SF homes cost more now than they did in the 70s, how is the average person affording 2,700 SF homes today? And low end AC & Dishwashers can be had for only a few thousand dollars NOW. Back in the 70s the cheapest ones were still expensive enough to require an upper middle class income.
  - skohan 6y ago
    > how is the average person affording 2,700 SF homes today? They're not. Home ownership is currently at about the same level it was in the 90's, declining from a boom in the 2000's driven by sub-prime lending, but if you look at generational differences, everyone younger than baby boomers is basically owning homes at much lower rates. https://journal.firsttuesday.us/bad-news-for-tomorrows-homeownership-rate/50222/ https://journal.firsttuesday.us/bad-news-for-tomorrows-homeo...
    - valuearb 6y ago
      2014 was six years ago after a sharp recession. Current home ownership is near all time highs. https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf So why is the average home size nearly double the size in the 70s?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]