What evidence? I thought that was standard orthodoxy, not just on HN. No one doubts that people can and have beat basic index funds; I just thought that was a p

What evidence? I thought that was standard orthodoxy, not just on HN. No one doubts that people can and have beat basic index funds; I just thought that was a poor predictor of what would beat the market again going forward (perhaps after accounting for fees?). I used to work in sell side equity research before leaving to do software development, because at least from my vantage point, no one was that great at predicting the market.