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I wonder if I might explore that a little. Do recognizing and mitigating cognitive biases -- as goals -- necessarily lead to better organizations? On the face
by wenc 6y ago
I wonder if I might explore that a little. Do recognizing and mitigating cognitive biases -- as goals -- necessarily lead to better organizations?
On the face of it, it might seem the answer is yes. Fewer cognitive biases means better decisions that correspond more closely to reality. The thrust is that the more rational we are, the more effective our actions are.
However, in my observation, the type of rationality that "works" isn't always the same as the type that is "logically correct" (they can be identical in some instances, but not in all). Successful organizations, it seems to me, tend to prize "instrumental rationality" over "value rationality" / "epistemic rationality" [1].
Just wondering what folks' thoughts are on that?
Folks like Gerd Gigerenzer advocate the use of heuristics, which while are often biased, actually lead to good outcomes on average -- especially in incomplete information scenarios (which is most scenarios in real life). [2, 3]
It has even been shown that heuristics or crude (or even slightly wrong) simple models can outperform complex rigorous models in complex environments – because they are usually more robust to assumption violations under changing conditions [4,5]. In real life, assumptions are violated to various degrees almost all the time.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_and_value_rationality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_and_value_rationa...
[2] https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-heuristic-2795235 https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-heuristic-2795235
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_decision-making https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_dec...
[4] https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2012/09/17/robustness-of-simple-rules/ https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2012/09/17/robustness-of-simp...
[5] https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/why-forecasts-fail-what-to-do-instead/ https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/why-forecasts-fail-what-...