Identifying second-order effects, along with their relative magnitude is hard enough to begin with. Only if your model of the 1st order situation is precise eno

Identifying second-order effects, along with their relative magnitude is hard enough to begin with. Only if your model of the 1st order situation is precise enough, you may come up with adequate 2nd order possibilities, and even then, N-th order thinking becomes exponentially harder as N increases. Each new effect presents a new model, which exponentially increases the area of the plane of outcomes.