4 ms·
Here's a mental model I've discovered that has been useful for me: "Even if you have cleverly identified a second-order effect in the opposite direction, it do
by lucraft 6y ago
Here's a mental model I've discovered that has been useful for me:
"Even if you have cleverly identified a second-order effect in the opposite direction, it doesn't mean it actually outweighs the magnitude of the first-order effect – you still have to check."
- AnimalMuppet 6y agoAlso, life is not one-dimensional. The second-order change may not be parallel (or antiparallel) to the change - it may go off in some other direction.
- bluetomcat 6y agoIdentifying second-order effects, along with their relative magnitude is hard enough to begin with. Only if your model of the 1st order situation is precise enough, you may come up with adequate 2nd order possibilities, and even then, N-th order thinking becomes exponentially harder as N increases. Each new effect presents a new model, which exponentially increases the area of the plane of outcomes.
- wenc 6y agoJust to add to that mental model: In simple systems, first order effects tend to dominate. In complex systems, higher order effects tend to dominate.