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I'm bullish on the economy. Outside of tourism and live entertainment, I don't see any industry taking a massive hit. I'd even say that tourism will bounce back

I'm bullish on the economy. Outside of tourism and live entertainment, I don't see any industry taking a massive hit. I'd even say that tourism will bounce back much faster than expectations. Over the last few weeks, I've realized that people are okay with the risk in exchange for getting back their normal lives. Six months into the pandemic, it's also clear that while it is serious, it isn't the civilization ending pandemic we initially thought it was.

ckdarby 6y ago
> it isn't the civilization ending pandemic we initially thought it was If you look at the USA age distribution of 65+, the death rate of those above 65+, and assume 50% only get it because herd immunity we're talking about ~4M deaths. Yes, not civilization ending but Losing >1% of your population isn't something to just brush off either. Of course if there's a vaccine then it'll be much better but this is just the USA and now think on a global scale. Not all countries will be able to afford the vaccine, not all countries will be able to get access to it in time, not all countries will be able to produce it by themselves at scale, etc. Let it sink in what a 1% population loss looks like on a global scale, 78M deaths. I think this is why the markets have been so bullish. How much financially better do developed countries with retirement plans look if they didn't have to pay out ~7% less of all retirement payments.
ir77 6y ago
i don't think you understand how broad the word "tourism" is. in march, worldwide air travel was down almost 95%. even now it's still down about 60-75%. these are staggering numbers, that have and will have staggering effects. think how many people go into building, maintaining and flying a simple airbus 320. everyone from airbus, to its engineers, suppliers, everyone on delta, etc., is absolutely impacted if that plane is not flying. this trickles down into private travel which hits even more well paying jobs that build/maintain/support/fly those aircraft. travel is simply not some dumpy motel in some dumpy town going out of business, travel/tourism has tremendous implications.
- eli_gottlieb 6y ago
  Yeah, every single academic conference has gone virtual for the entire year. I can't leave the state and come back without having to quarantine for two weeks. Long-distance travel is down.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    From what I've seen, all going well most professional events business (and a great deal of other business travel) is completely shutdown for the next 12 months. That will have huge downstream effects.

ckdarby 6y ago

> it isn't the civilization ending pandemic we initially thought it was If you look at the USA age distribution of 65+, the death rate of those above 65+, and assume 50% only get it because herd immunity we're talking about ~4M deaths. Yes, not civilization ending but Losing >1% of your population isn't something to just brush off either. Of course if there's a vaccine then it'll be much better but this is just the USA and now think on a global scale. Not all countries will be able to afford the vaccine, not all countries will be able to get access to it in time, not all countries will be able to produce it by themselves at scale, etc. Let it sink in what a 1% population loss looks like on a global scale, 78M deaths. I think this is why the markets have been so bullish. How much financially better do developed countries with retirement plans look if they didn't have to pay out ~7% less of all retirement payments.

ir77 6y ago

i don't think you understand how broad the word "tourism" is. in march, worldwide air travel was down almost 95%. even now it's still down about 60-75%. these are staggering numbers, that have and will have staggering effects. think how many people go into building, maintaining and flying a simple airbus 320. everyone from airbus, to its engineers, suppliers, everyone on delta, etc., is absolutely impacted if that plane is not flying. this trickles down into private travel which hits even more well paying jobs that build/maintain/support/fly those aircraft. travel is simply not some dumpy motel in some dumpy town going out of business, travel/tourism has tremendous implications.

eli_gottlieb 6y ago
Yeah, every single academic conference has gone virtual for the entire year. I can't leave the state and come back without having to quarantine for two weeks. Long-distance travel is down.
- ghaff 6y ago
  From what I've seen, all going well most professional events business (and a great deal of other business travel) is completely shutdown for the next 12 months. That will have huge downstream effects.