Well.. dumb bombs dropped from high altitude attain a terminal velocity of almost Mach 1. I suppose SDBs would be somewhat slower but probably not by much. So i

Well.. dumb bombs dropped from high altitude attain a terminal velocity of almost Mach 1. I suppose SDBs would be somewhat slower but probably not by much. So it's going to be interesting to see how such a diffuse swarm doing a hundred or so kmph could execute area denial against such an attack unless you have sophisticated radar and real time compute and target vectoring. Even more difficult if the attack consists of air to surface missiles instead (anti radar would be the first wave). I wouldn't accept such odds on defense. Sure simple small drones can attack ground targets but that's a different problem from area denial to air superiority fighters and it assumes you already have a ground presence (ie. insurgency ISIS style) to get within range where you minimize risk of detection and flight time. If detected, an ISIS style drone can be shot down with a rifle. Again I'm not saying pilotless attack / defence is not going to come - it obviously will. I'm saying it probably won't be the tens of thousands of cheap drones approach for the reasons above - it will be faster, more expensive drones which will be a significant fraction of manned aircraft cost.