4 ms·

Maybe I'm not really wise to the world of finance and what-have-you, but how many S-1s do I need to see in short succession before I start to ask: "What's going

by mabbo 6y ago

Maybe I'm not really wise to the world of finance and what-have-you, but how many S-1s do I need to see in short succession before I start to ask: "What's going on, guys?" Like, is this a indication that a lot of people are trying to exchange their companies for hard cash as quickly as possible? It kind of looks a lot like that. This is what, the 3rd or 4th one to hit the HN front-page lately? Is... is that a bad sign?

outworlder 6y ago
5 from companies in the Bay Area alone. There were more.
dang 6y ago
When one post is on HN's front page it's common for there to be a rush of follow-up posts. Usually we downweight these since there's a power-law dropoff in how interesting they are. Some of the moderation principles relating to this: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=follow-up%20by%3Adang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=curiosity%20repetition%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=diffs%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=can%27t%20predict%20from%20sequence%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=%22significant%20new%20information%22%20by%3Adang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so... I'm wondering which of these S-1s are particularly interesting to discuss in their own right, vs. which are just follow-up/copycat-style threads? Unity is getting a specific discussion (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24261559 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24261559) but the other ones seem pretty generic. Oh yeah, that's another relevant principle: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=generic%20discussion%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor....
paulsutter 6y ago
There's been an IPO winter for about 20 years, so yes this flurry of S1s is exciting for tech folks http://www.bretswanson.com/index.php/2017/01/reasons-for-optimism-in-2017/ http://www.bretswanson.com/index.php/2017/01/reasons-for-opt...
jwatte 6y ago
Business was at a standstill in 2008. It takes 8-10 years to go from embryo to IPO these days. Thus, a lot of companies got started in 2010-2012, and are now reaching IPO maturity. I think this is a "ketchup bottle" effect rather than a sign of the end times. (That being said, the end times may ALSO be upon us, but not because of this particular sign.)

by mabbo 6y ago

outworlder 6y ago

5 from companies in the Bay Area alone. There were more.

dang 6y ago

When one post is on HN's front page it's common for there to be a rush of follow-up posts. Usually we downweight these since there's a power-law dropoff in how interesting they are. Some of the moderation principles relating to this: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=follow-up%20by%3Adang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=curiosity%20repetition%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=diffs%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=can%27t%20predict%20from%20sequence%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor... https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=%22significant%20new%20information%22%20by%3Adang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so... I'm wondering which of these S-1s are particularly interesting to discuss in their own right, vs. which are just follow-up/copycat-style threads? Unity is getting a specific discussion (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24261559 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24261559) but the other ones seem pretty generic. Oh yeah, that's another relevant principle: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=generic%20discussion%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor....

paulsutter 6y ago

There's been an IPO winter for about 20 years, so yes this flurry of S1s is exciting for tech folks http://www.bretswanson.com/index.php/2017/01/reasons-for-optimism-in-2017/ http://www.bretswanson.com/index.php/2017/01/reasons-for-opt...

jwatte 6y ago

Business was at a standstill in 2008. It takes 8-10 years to go from embryo to IPO these days. Thus, a lot of companies got started in 2010-2012, and are now reaching IPO maturity. I think this is a "ketchup bottle" effect rather than a sign of the end times. (That being said, the end times may ALSO be upon us, but not because of this particular sign.)