I think we still lack fundamental tools that can allow anyone to say with reasonable certainty that drug X will work. All you can do is eliminate as much as ris

I think we still lack fundamental tools that can allow anyone to say with reasonable certainty that drug X will work. All you can do is eliminate as much as risk as possible, but if you don't know baseline risk and how much each precautionary step actually reduces the risk by, you're still shooting in the dark. The only people that can 'win' in biotech are investors or pharmaceutical companies, namely those who can take a portfolio approach.