4 ms·
> 40% of the time It's more subtle than that. If you dig into the data, you'll see it's closer to "100 marriages this year, 50 divorces -- omg half of marriage
by caseysoftware 6y ago
> 40% of the time
It's more subtle than that. If you dig into the data, you'll see it's closer to "100 marriages this year, 50 divorces -- omg half of marriages end in divorce!"
This is only true if there were zero existing, previous marriages before this year.
The more common trend now is that people just aren't getting married, likely in small part because of this mathematical+reporting malpractice. When you convince people something usually fails, they don't bother trying.
- burfog 6y agoThere is a math interpretation error, but it isn't that. The actual error is that some people keep coming back. Most people don't get a divorce, but some people skew the numbers by getting 2, 3, 4, or more divorces.
- ebg13 6y ago> If you dig into the data, you'll see it's closer to "100 marriages this year, 50 divorces -- omg half of marriages end in divorce!" This is only true if there were zero existing, previous marriages before this year. Ok, but your objection is only true if there were zero divorces in previous years. If the divorce count is half of the marriage count for the year every year, then it is indeed half.
- viridian 6y agoNot if the delta of both counts decrease, which is exactly the point the person you replied to already made. Divorce lags marriage by definition, since you can't get divorced without getting married.