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Tipping points like this are good reminders that our current policy choices and courses of action are guided by conservative estimates and assumptions- which is

Tipping points like this are good reminders that our current policy choices and courses of action are guided by conservative estimates and assumptions- which is why it's a meme at this point when reading about new findings to see that the system is responding 'faster than expected'. The low, rosy climate sensitivities that make 1.5C policy goals look possible are being ruled out: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/climate-change-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity-global-warming/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/climate-change-equili... A recent study found arctic ice is melting faster than expected: https://phys.org/news/2020-08-underestimated-pace-arctic.html https://phys.org/news/2020-08-underestimated-pace-arctic.htm... We need a new way to communicate the realities of climate change without allowing our leaders to latch onto some low-probability, low-sensitivity, low-impact fairy tale.

bluntfang 6y ago
>our current policy choices and courses of action are guided by conservative estimates and assumptions Do you mean complete denial of a problem existing when you say this?
- scarmig 6y ago
  Even the "good" politicians in the US and Europe are proposing solutions that are only solutions given the conservative estimates and assumptions; they're wildly insufficient for the broader range of realistic scenarios. A lot of this is political, of course: the calculation they're making is that if a policy is hard to pass when it's made to address the conservative models, policies that are appropriate for moderate and highly sensitive scenarios are nigh impossible, so right now it's best to focus on the conservative scenario and hope for the best.
surfsvammel 6y ago
If the media communicated this like “There won’t be any more BBC Planet Earth featuring polar bears, because there won’t be any polar bears anymore”, I believe more people would act. I know, it’s a ridiculous example, but I don’t think people understand the severity of news like this. I believe that the consequences just seem too far away, both geographically and in time, for people to care. Makes me sad.
- cheez 6y ago
  No they wouldn't. Every single plebeian on earth wants the polar bears to survive. But their own economic, day-to-day survival is first. These thoughts you have are only for those with the luxury of time. Edit: so if you TRULY want to help the earth, help your own kind first.
  - 0xB31B1B 6y ago
    It’s a generational thing. The younger generation has demonstrated they are way more likely to make personal sacrifices to save the planet (look at how they drive less, are vegan more often, and also they say this in surveys)
    - cheez 6y ago
      I'm sure if you break it out by whether they have any responsibilities or not, it would be different. Not generational. My generation was the same.
rjsw 6y ago
I think that the climate change denial positions of leaders may be examples of the same kinds of memes that have caused cargo cults in response to other threats to a way of life.
baron_harkonnen 6y ago
> We need a new way to communicate the realities of climate change ... It looks like this was removed from the front page in about an hour. We’re not even allowed to talk about this topic on HN so I’m not too optimistic about more ambitious goals. It’s pretty clear we’ve decided as a society that we’re going to follow the road we’re on, and stick to it hard, and see where it leads.
- mistermann 6y ago
  > It looks like this was removed from the front page in about an hour. We’re not even allowed to talk about this topic on HN so I’m not too optimistic about more ambitious goals. So we miss out on yet another thread of the same old bitching & complaining, regurgitation of statistics, and snarky criticism of our various outgroups. There are surely several of those happening as we speak on Reddit and elsewhere if you need a fix, I don't think it matters all that much to the planet. > It’s pretty clear we’ve decided as a society that we’re going to follow the road we’re on, and stick to it hard, and see where it leads. It does indeed seem that way unfortunately.

bluntfang 6y ago

>our current policy choices and courses of action are guided by conservative estimates and assumptions Do you mean complete denial of a problem existing when you say this?

scarmig 6y ago
Even the "good" politicians in the US and Europe are proposing solutions that are only solutions given the conservative estimates and assumptions; they're wildly insufficient for the broader range of realistic scenarios. A lot of this is political, of course: the calculation they're making is that if a policy is hard to pass when it's made to address the conservative models, policies that are appropriate for moderate and highly sensitive scenarios are nigh impossible, so right now it's best to focus on the conservative scenario and hope for the best.

surfsvammel 6y ago

If the media communicated this like “There won’t be any more BBC Planet Earth featuring polar bears, because there won’t be any polar bears anymore”, I believe more people would act. I know, it’s a ridiculous example, but I don’t think people understand the severity of news like this. I believe that the consequences just seem too far away, both geographically and in time, for people to care. Makes me sad.

cheez 6y ago
No they wouldn't. Every single plebeian on earth wants the polar bears to survive. But their own economic, day-to-day survival is first. These thoughts you have are only for those with the luxury of time. Edit: so if you TRULY want to help the earth, help your own kind first.
- 0xB31B1B 6y ago
  It’s a generational thing. The younger generation has demonstrated they are way more likely to make personal sacrifices to save the planet (look at how they drive less, are vegan more often, and also they say this in surveys)
  - cheez 6y ago
    I'm sure if you break it out by whether they have any responsibilities or not, it would be different. Not generational. My generation was the same.

rjsw 6y ago

I think that the climate change denial positions of leaders may be examples of the same kinds of memes that have caused cargo cults in response to other threats to a way of life.

baron_harkonnen 6y ago

> We need a new way to communicate the realities of climate change ... It looks like this was removed from the front page in about an hour. We’re not even allowed to talk about this topic on HN so I’m not too optimistic about more ambitious goals. It’s pretty clear we’ve decided as a society that we’re going to follow the road we’re on, and stick to it hard, and see where it leads.

mistermann 6y ago
> It looks like this was removed from the front page in about an hour. We’re not even allowed to talk about this topic on HN so I’m not too optimistic about more ambitious goals. So we miss out on yet another thread of the same old bitching & complaining, regurgitation of statistics, and snarky criticism of our various outgroups. There are surely several of those happening as we speak on Reddit and elsewhere if you need a fix, I don't think it matters all that much to the planet. > It’s pretty clear we’ve decided as a society that we’re going to follow the road we’re on, and stick to it hard, and see where it leads. It does indeed seem that way unfortunately.