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This appears to be really shoddy research and once again illustrates why a macro economic approach to this problem simply doesn't work and why public have stopp
by sfifs 6y ago
This appears to be really shoddy research and once again illustrates why a macro economic approach to this problem simply doesn't work and why public have stopped listening.
The researchers are trying to use a system level risk returns balance and using very high level average metrics like risk of reduction in lifespan. How about the distribution around the mean and how about the suffering of people who undergo cancer treatments and survive? Having seen a close relative battle cancer and the family suffering, i wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy and their families.
The other piece these macro economic approaches miss is that while a system level cost isn't much, for most people their property, their job and their neighbourhood social networks ARE the major assets they have in life and in the case of nuclear accidents, they lose everything. This fundamentally Behavioral Economics view of consequences is what drives the recent popular opposition to nuclear power and unless nuclear proponents start analyzing nuclear power through a Behavioral Economics lens, they're likely going to be ignored by the population. Comparing risk of death against statistical correlations with air pollution isn't going to cut it.
On nuclear, we're barking up the wrong tree by pushing for economic analysis of old style nuclear. We need to develop and qualify designs that are passively safe with no risk of driving people away from their property and society before the industry will be taken seriously, otherwise the only interest will be in weapons research.
- roenxi 6y ago> On nuclear, we're barking up the wrong tree by pushing for economic analysis of old style nuclear. We need to develop and qualify designs that are passively safe with ... Evidence is they figured that out in the 1980s. We haven't seen a bad meltdown from any plant built in the last 40 years.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- i_am_proteus 6y agoYour conjecture that this research is shoddy appears to be unfounded. By using Life Quality Index, which includes Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy, the research takes into account well-being and health impacts other than death; making expected-value decisions on such a metric is a standard way to encode a nonlinear objective function without needing to use higher central moments elsewhere in the decision. Furthermore, the analysis does look at the economic impacts of relocating people from their homes and does not simply compare the statistics against air pollution. Finally, economic analysis of old-style nuclear remains incredibly relevant, given that existing "legacy" nuclear power-generating stations represent a significant fraction of total stationary power-generating capacity, and that we have witnessed political movements to replace these facilities with fossil-fuel burning plants due to fear of nuclear accident.