3 ms·

I am sorry to say this, but I don't think your kid will have a better life than you do. Here's why: We're in the start (some say middle) of a worldwide econom

I am sorry to say this, but I don't think your kid will have a better life than you do. Here's why: We're in the start (some say middle) of a worldwide economic depression. So far, massive printing of currencies have saved the day, but not for very long, as food/oil prices have skyrocketed within the past few months. For the next 10-15 years, we'll be suffering from high structural unemployment as well as higher cost of living, after interest rate goes up around the world. There is oversupply everywhere. Meanwhile technology innovations continue to reduce human worker demands. Short of an another miraculous technology boom or world war, we will not exit the global bear market for the foreseable future.

gnufied 16y ago
I wish I could downvote you. Not for, because you are wrong, but because one can make any reasonable sounding claim about future and get away with it. Oil prices have been especially kept artificially high by Oil Producing countries. And think about it, if they go high enough may be middle class people will start using Public Transport (and start caring about Public Transport). Rising oil prices is not an issue.
anonymous246 16y ago
If you visit India again or just contemplate the differences between India and America, you'll see that A LOT of the GDP in the USA is generated via internal trade. And this happens because the USA is an efficient economy, with a lot of know how (i.e., "techonology" in the abstract form). India is progressing towards making it's systems efficient thereby allowing internal trade. You seem to think that exporting goods is the only way to absorb extra industrial and service capacity. Yes, if you want do things double quick. But if you're OK with doing it ploddingly (like India is), a gradual ramp up of internal demand (due increased economic efficiency + scientific inputs) can also lift up everybody's standard of living. Remember, there's actually not that much of a dearth of capital in India (people love to hoard gold; land is an asset etc). But there is a dearth of investment. Anyway, I'm repeating myself.
- iki23 16y ago
  Yep, the speed does not matter as much as understanding the goal, esp. when resources become limited. And no doubt, India has deeper experience with operating on low resources, than nowadays western world does. The 60 years old Gandhi paradigm is still reusable with modern tools today, compare e.g. with mobile/Internet impact on village production business. Greer on Gandhi economical paradigm: "His suggestion, to condense some very subtle thinking into too few words, was that a nation that had a vast labor force but very little money was wasting its time to invest that money in state-of-the-art industrial plants; instead, he suggested, the most effective approach was to equip that vast labor force with tools that would improve their productivity within the existing structures of resource supply, production and distribution. Instead of replacing India's huge home-based spinning and weaving industries with factories, for example, and throwing millions of spinners and weavers out of work, he argued that the most effective use of India's limited resources was to help those spinners and weavers upgrade their skills, spinning wheels, and looms, so they could produce more cloth at a lower price, continue to support themselves by their labor, and in the process make India self-sufficient in clothing production." - http://silverbearcafe.com/private/02.10/factories.html http://silverbearcafe.com/private/02.10/factories.html Edit: added second paragraph in the citation

gnufied 16y ago

I wish I could downvote you. Not for, because you are wrong, but because one can make any reasonable sounding claim about future and get away with it. Oil prices have been especially kept artificially high by Oil Producing countries. And think about it, if they go high enough may be middle class people will start using Public Transport (and start caring about Public Transport). Rising oil prices is not an issue.

anonymous246 16y ago

If you visit India again or just contemplate the differences between India and America, you'll see that A LOT of the GDP in the USA is generated via internal trade. And this happens because the USA is an efficient economy, with a lot of know how (i.e., "techonology" in the abstract form). India is progressing towards making it's systems efficient thereby allowing internal trade. You seem to think that exporting goods is the only way to absorb extra industrial and service capacity. Yes, if you want do things double quick. But if you're OK with doing it ploddingly (like India is), a gradual ramp up of internal demand (due increased economic efficiency + scientific inputs) can also lift up everybody's standard of living. Remember, there's actually not that much of a dearth of capital in India (people love to hoard gold; land is an asset etc). But there is a dearth of investment. Anyway, I'm repeating myself.

iki23 16y ago
Yep, the speed does not matter as much as understanding the goal, esp. when resources become limited. And no doubt, India has deeper experience with operating on low resources, than nowadays western world does. The 60 years old Gandhi paradigm is still reusable with modern tools today, compare e.g. with mobile/Internet impact on village production business. Greer on Gandhi economical paradigm: "His suggestion, to condense some very subtle thinking into too few words, was that a nation that had a vast labor force but very little money was wasting its time to invest that money in state-of-the-art industrial plants; instead, he suggested, the most effective approach was to equip that vast labor force with tools that would improve their productivity within the existing structures of resource supply, production and distribution. Instead of replacing India's huge home-based spinning and weaving industries with factories, for example, and throwing millions of spinners and weavers out of work, he argued that the most effective use of India's limited resources was to help those spinners and weavers upgrade their skills, spinning wheels, and looms, so they could produce more cloth at a lower price, continue to support themselves by their labor, and in the process make India self-sufficient in clothing production." - http://silverbearcafe.com/private/02.10/factories.html http://silverbearcafe.com/private/02.10/factories.html Edit: added second paragraph in the citation