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Once a civilization is capable of building Von Neumann probes, it would be silly for them not to do so. They are basically free, since they are self-replicating

Once a civilization is capable of building Von Neumann probes, it would be silly for them not to do so. They are basically free, since they are self-replicating. Of course a civilization is going to want to control and harness as many resources as it possibly can. We may not be able to imagine what they'd want to build out of whole star systems, but I absolutely don't believe that civilization will ever run out of things to build. If there's any competition between civilizations, then it's even more obvious that each one will be racing to claim any star system that isn't already claimed. But even with no competition, it makes sense to spread rapidly. If you don't find that intuitively obvious, consider this: In 4.5 billion years, the Milky Way will collide with Andromeda. This presents us with a literal galactic-scale single-turn prisoner's dilemma: If intelligent life exists in Andromeda, they may already be preparing to conquer the Milky Way. If they are, and we don't prepare to fight back, they will obviously win. We won't have any ability to communicate with Andromeda to find out their intentions until it's too late. The earlier we start preparing, the more likely we are to survive. So if I were a spacefaring civilization in the Milky Way today, I'd be doing everything I could to mobilize every star system in the galaxy in preparation to beat Andromeda. There's just no reason not to...

landryraccoon 6y ago
That's self destructive behavior on a planetary scale. No species that has an instinct or culture to consume all available resources will survive long enough to do it on a galactic scale. Also, the math doesn't work out in the sense that if a species that had this instinct reached interstellar travel a million years ago the Milky Way galaxy would already have entirely been consumed. That's the Fermi Paradox in a nutshell. If the species you are describing exists, they must have just started eating the galaxy, because the galaxy would already be eaten in an blink of an eye on the cosmic timeline. Lets suppose that it takes a ten thousand years to reach a star system and consume it, and the swarm needs the resources of an entire star system just to build 2 more probes. That means that the number of star systems consumed doubles every ten thousand years. At that rate it takes no more than 50 generations, or half a million years, to consume the entire galaxy. Note that if the number of probes the Von Neumann swarm builds is more than 2 per star system consumed, this process happens even faster.
- kentonv 6y ago
  Right, this is why I don't actually think the object is a probe: if there is no competition, then a million years from now, we can expect Earth-originating technology will have spread across the galaxy. To imagine that another civilization exists but is no more than a million years ahead of us seems like too much of a coincidence.
- knome 6y ago
  >That's self destructive behavior on a planetary scale. No species that has an instinct or culture to consume all available resources will survive long enough to do it on a galactic scale. Have you ever read Issac Asimov's story "The Gentle Vultures"?
ithkuil 6y ago
Andromeda has 3-4 more stars than the milky way; we already lost, should we flee instead?
- kentonv 6y ago
  The odds favor Andromeda, yes. But depending on just how rare intelligent life is, there is some possibility that we have a lucky head start. As for fleeing: The whole concept of "fleeing" assumes a civilization composed of discrete beings that are expensive to reproduce but can be feasibly transported. The idea of Von Neumann probes is based on a different assumption. The probe itself is very small, maybe only a few pounds, but is designed to expand using the resources at its destination. There probably aren't discrete beings -- computers can freely exchange "memories" over networks which makes them effectively all one big hive mind. The hive mind directly controls everything it builds. Eventually the entire star system -- perhaps the entire galaxy or universe -- becomes effectively one giant intelligent being as all available resources are assimilated. This civilization would certainly send probes to neighboring galaxies if it has the ability to, but it makes no sense to think about transporting the "inhabitants" (if you can even call them that) of one star system to another en masse.
  - ithkuil 6y ago
    I wonder whether once a civilisation reached that point, the game theoretical equations around aggressivity and self preservation change significantly to invalidate the dark forest theory.
svieira 6y ago
You should really read The Count to the Eschaton Sequence by John C. Wright. The Cold Equations is another answer to the question you pose.
pavlov 6y ago
“Of course a civilization is going to want to control and harness as many resources as it possibly can.” This may be an entirely human-centric assumption. Maybe there are a million civilizations out there living in balance with their local planetary environments, entirely without the expansionist curiosity and destructive drive that leads humans to seriously contemplate things like von Neumann probes?
- kentonv 6y ago
  The desire to survive and expand is not a human trait, it is a natural result of evolution. Any successful evolved species will have this desire because those that don't, don't get anywhere. Interstellar civilizations are unlikely to be biological, but evolution still applies. All it takes is for one civilization in the whole galaxy to decide to build Von Neumann probes, and they'll have taken control of all unoccupied systems in the galaxy in short order.
  - vivekd 6y ago
    Is it? Evolution itself seems like an expansionary process but it doesn't seem to follow that the outcomes of the evolutionary process are expansionary. It seems like many species are evolved to very specific environments like caves or thermal vents that they will stay in for generations if not for thr duration of their existence as species.
deepsun 6y ago
Why do you want to "beat Andromeda"? You have your Von Neumann probes, they have their own. Maybe theirs are better. Why do you want yours to beat theirs?
joubert 6y ago
> In 4.5 billion years, the Milky Way will collide with Andromeda. This presents us with a literal galactic-scale single-turn prisoner's dilemma: If intelligent life exists in Andromeda, they may already be preparing to conquer the Milky Way. If they are, and we don't prepare to fight back, they will obviously win. We won't have any ability to communicate with Andromeda to find out their intentions until it's too late. The earlier we start preparing, the more likely we are to survive. I'm trying to imagine what to do now in preparation for a hostile encounter in 4.5 billion years that isn't already happening organically. By "organically", I mean both "in the course of gradual or natural development" and "w.r.t. living matter", given the time scale. Do you have ideas?

landryraccoon 6y ago

That's self destructive behavior on a planetary scale. No species that has an instinct or culture to consume all available resources will survive long enough to do it on a galactic scale. Also, the math doesn't work out in the sense that if a species that had this instinct reached interstellar travel a million years ago the Milky Way galaxy would already have entirely been consumed. That's the Fermi Paradox in a nutshell. If the species you are describing exists, they must have just started eating the galaxy, because the galaxy would already be eaten in an blink of an eye on the cosmic timeline. Lets suppose that it takes a ten thousand years to reach a star system and consume it, and the swarm needs the resources of an entire star system just to build 2 more probes. That means that the number of star systems consumed doubles every ten thousand years. At that rate it takes no more than 50 generations, or half a million years, to consume the entire galaxy. Note that if the number of probes the Von Neumann swarm builds is more than 2 per star system consumed, this process happens even faster.

kentonv 6y ago
Right, this is why I don't actually think the object is a probe: if there is no competition, then a million years from now, we can expect Earth-originating technology will have spread across the galaxy. To imagine that another civilization exists but is no more than a million years ahead of us seems like too much of a coincidence.
knome 6y ago
>That's self destructive behavior on a planetary scale. No species that has an instinct or culture to consume all available resources will survive long enough to do it on a galactic scale. Have you ever read Issac Asimov's story "The Gentle Vultures"?

ithkuil 6y ago

Andromeda has 3-4 more stars than the milky way; we already lost, should we flee instead?

kentonv 6y ago
The odds favor Andromeda, yes. But depending on just how rare intelligent life is, there is some possibility that we have a lucky head start. As for fleeing: The whole concept of "fleeing" assumes a civilization composed of discrete beings that are expensive to reproduce but can be feasibly transported. The idea of Von Neumann probes is based on a different assumption. The probe itself is very small, maybe only a few pounds, but is designed to expand using the resources at its destination. There probably aren't discrete beings -- computers can freely exchange "memories" over networks which makes them effectively all one big hive mind. The hive mind directly controls everything it builds. Eventually the entire star system -- perhaps the entire galaxy or universe -- becomes effectively one giant intelligent being as all available resources are assimilated. This civilization would certainly send probes to neighboring galaxies if it has the ability to, but it makes no sense to think about transporting the "inhabitants" (if you can even call them that) of one star system to another en masse.
- ithkuil 6y ago
  I wonder whether once a civilisation reached that point, the game theoretical equations around aggressivity and self preservation change significantly to invalidate the dark forest theory.

svieira 6y ago

You should really read The Count to the Eschaton Sequence by John C. Wright. The Cold Equations is another answer to the question you pose.

pavlov 6y ago

“Of course a civilization is going to want to control and harness as many resources as it possibly can.” This may be an entirely human-centric assumption. Maybe there are a million civilizations out there living in balance with their local planetary environments, entirely without the expansionist curiosity and destructive drive that leads humans to seriously contemplate things like von Neumann probes?

kentonv 6y ago
The desire to survive and expand is not a human trait, it is a natural result of evolution. Any successful evolved species will have this desire because those that don't, don't get anywhere. Interstellar civilizations are unlikely to be biological, but evolution still applies. All it takes is for one civilization in the whole galaxy to decide to build Von Neumann probes, and they'll have taken control of all unoccupied systems in the galaxy in short order.
- vivekd 6y ago
  Is it? Evolution itself seems like an expansionary process but it doesn't seem to follow that the outcomes of the evolutionary process are expansionary. It seems like many species are evolved to very specific environments like caves or thermal vents that they will stay in for generations if not for thr duration of their existence as species.

deepsun 6y ago

Why do you want to "beat Andromeda"? You have your Von Neumann probes, they have their own. Maybe theirs are better. Why do you want yours to beat theirs?

joubert 6y ago

> In 4.5 billion years, the Milky Way will collide with Andromeda. This presents us with a literal galactic-scale single-turn prisoner's dilemma: If intelligent life exists in Andromeda, they may already be preparing to conquer the Milky Way. If they are, and we don't prepare to fight back, they will obviously win. We won't have any ability to communicate with Andromeda to find out their intentions until it's too late. The earlier we start preparing, the more likely we are to survive. I'm trying to imagine what to do now in preparation for a hostile encounter in 4.5 billion years that isn't already happening organically. By "organically", I mean both "in the course of gradual or natural development" and "w.r.t. living matter", given the time scale. Do you have ideas?