2 ms·

We may have already reached herd immunity in some locations, like northern Italy, NYC, etc - the places hardest hit so far, with many other places such as south

We may have already reached herd immunity in some locations, like northern Italy, NYC, etc - the places hardest hit so far, with many other places such as southern Florida on the way. This would be due to T-cell immunity conferred by prior coronavirus exposure, measured to exist in as much as 50% of the sample populations in replicated studies, lasting for up to 17 years. This is not reflected in the B-cell antibody tests being done. This also helps explain why different regions of the world were impacted differently - they had different histories of coronavirus exposures. Refer to https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9

pvaldes 6y ago
If we are reached herd immunity, why we have even more new cases than ever?. Herd immunity means that disease is unable to spread anymore, we can see that this is clearly not happening. Anybody can see this. What we are seeing in reality is a patched distribution or a model in mosaic, a case studied in ecology. Models predict in this case an infinite cycle of conquest and retreat that fits much better.
- mikem170 6y ago
  The science around the evolution of this pandemic is still up in the air, but it's not as crazy an idea as you think, here's an article talking about herd immunity in some NYC neighborhoods, without regard to t-cells [0] I agree that herd immunity, whenever it manifests, would be patchy. NYC is not the same as other cities in NY state as far as exposure, or all the small towns and rural areas in between, etc. I thought the paper on t-cells was interesting, in that the patchiness of covid impact around the world could partially be explained by prior coronavirus exposure, which would be expected to vary by region. [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/have-you-herd-new-york-might-have-immunitybut-please-dont-count-on-it-the-mayor-pleads-2020-08-21 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/have-you-herd-new-york-mig...

pvaldes 6y ago

If we are reached herd immunity, why we have even more new cases than ever?. Herd immunity means that disease is unable to spread anymore, we can see that this is clearly not happening. Anybody can see this. What we are seeing in reality is a patched distribution or a model in mosaic, a case studied in ecology. Models predict in this case an infinite cycle of conquest and retreat that fits much better.

mikem170 6y ago
The science around the evolution of this pandemic is still up in the air, but it's not as crazy an idea as you think, here's an article talking about herd immunity in some NYC neighborhoods, without regard to t-cells [0] I agree that herd immunity, whenever it manifests, would be patchy. NYC is not the same as other cities in NY state as far as exposure, or all the small towns and rural areas in between, etc. I thought the paper on t-cells was interesting, in that the patchiness of covid impact around the world could partially be explained by prior coronavirus exposure, which would be expected to vary by region. [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/have-you-herd-new-york-might-have-immunitybut-please-dont-count-on-it-the-mayor-pleads-2020-08-21 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/have-you-herd-new-york-mig...