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So you're saying that 538 wanted an uncertain outcome and hacked the model design and parameters to deliver the outcome they wanted?
by panarky 6y ago
So you're saying that 538 wanted an uncertain outcome and hacked the model design and parameters to deliver the outcome they wanted?
- throwaway2245 6y agoI'm not saying this was intentional, but there is a very high incentive for them to deliver this type of outcome. There is not enough data to back-test their model on a single election which happens every 4 years, so the claim that a 60% prediction is fundamentally very different from a 95% prediction is statistically dubious.