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Not at all. These models all have a multilevel structure, accounting for election level data, district data and poll data. The main source of uncertainty is pr
by Tarq0n 6y ago
Not at all. These models all have a multilevel structure, accounting for election level data, district data and poll data. The main source of uncertainty is probably how hard representative polling is, not to mention the polls are carried out by many different organizations.
- manquer 6y agoThe logistical challenges are considerable factor this election. Many people may want to vote for say Biden, but their ballots could be disregarded. Even without the political fight over USPS funding, it is going to be extremely hard for them to turn around in < 1 week as required in many states, there are also the issue with votes that which are postmarked earlier but delivered later than election date( this is with good reason as you don't want results delayed if you wait for votes to come in) I am not sure how anyone, without detailed data access to postal operations can accurately predict how much of this going to be a problem.