4 ms·

Deluseional pipedream disguised as information. Let's make a test for heart disease we can take every day. Let's make a test for cancer to spot the first mutat

by caryd 6y ago

Deluseional pipedream disguised as information. Let's make a test for heart disease we can take every day. Let's make a test for cancer to spot the first mutated cell. Let's invent a time machine to fix it all. There are three solutions, but not yours. 1. Open everything as long as the curve is flattened to rush to herd immunity. This was the plan. Why did it change? 2. Wait 2 years for a cure. 3. Allow willing participants to get the virus to make vaccine tests better. It will be cured in 2 months. We allow people to sign up for war and risk their lives. Do the same with science.

zelphirkalt 6y ago
Number 3 makes me wonder: Do you think they have a lack of patients?! Why would we need any extra for testing?
- aaron695 6y ago
  You could do things like see if they can catch it from touch. Or 3 meters social distancing. Then when they get it you can do further tests, tracking everything from day of conception. All with top notch the best hospital care, so their risk would be similar overall as being in the community. I'd do it for fun, even without extra hospital care. Millions will die because of University ethics committees. [OT] I really like the Interrobang ‽I wish keyboards had it.
  - hhas01 6y ago
    “Millions will die because of University ethics committees.” Uh-huh. https://www.cdc.gov/tuskegee/timeline.htm https://www.cdc.gov/tuskegee/timeline.htm
    - aaron695 6y ago
      I did wonder which of the two cliche examples would be pulled out ;) Also everything by Milgram, Pavlov, Zimbardo, Jane Elliott, Ron Jones, My favourite - Schachter and Singer (Misattribution of arousal) Basically anything classical you read about on HN about psychology no longer passes ethics.
      - hhas01 6y ago
        “cliche examples” Well that’s certainly a perspective.
  - zelphirkalt 6y ago
    Interrobang ‽ has bad readability, in my opinion. Perhaps a capital letter P with a dot underneath would be better. I found many letters with "DOT BELOW" in charmap, but no "P".: ḄḅḌḍḤḥḲḳḶḷṂṃṆṇṚṛṢṣṬṭṾṿẈẉẒẓ It makes absolutely no sense to me, that there would be some characters with dots below, but not others, even of the latin alphabet. What?! Why?!
m0zg 6y ago
I argue #1 is still the _only_ realistic plan. And it hasn't changed, it's proceeding, whether we want it or not. Other countries which managed to "beat" the virus will join the rest later this fall. I hope they stockpiled enough PPE in the meanwhile. It ain't over until it's over. The virus is now endemic - it's not going anywhere. The only way out, besides a vaccine, which may or may not work, is to get the virus and acquire immunity (or die). People are just scared to admit it.
pvaldes 6y ago
> This was the plan. I'm starting to suspect that the real plan was killing as many poor people as possible, explaining the mass baths and stupid advices (cleaning masks with gasoline, go away and enjoy your tear gas, or drink poisons to poison the virus, and so...) > Why did it change? Because this plan leads to healthcare system collapsing as collateral damage, and this is an universal fear in all countries. If it collapses people that otherwise would recover, will die by lack of medical resources. And because it failed. After all those months we still are far from herd immunity, even if we had sacrificed thousands of elders in the way. > the best cure for any disease is to avoid the disease. That ship was sailed, for several reasons, and specially for some countries.
- mikem170 6y ago
  We may have already reached herd immunity in some locations, like northern Italy, NYC, etc - the places hardest hit so far, with many other places such as southern Florida on the way. This would be due to T-cell immunity conferred by prior coronavirus exposure, measured to exist in as much as 50% of the sample populations in replicated studies, lasting for up to 17 years. This is not reflected in the B-cell antibody tests being done. This also helps explain why different regions of the world were impacted differently - they had different histories of coronavirus exposures. Refer to https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9
  - pvaldes 6y ago
    If we are reached herd immunity, why we have even more new cases than ever?. Herd immunity means that disease is unable to spread anymore, we can see that this is clearly not happening. Anybody can see this. What we are seeing in reality is a patched distribution or a model in mosaic, a case studied in ecology. Models predict in this case an infinite cycle of conquest and retreat that fits much better.
    - mikem170 6y ago
      The science around the evolution of this pandemic is still up in the air, but it's not as crazy an idea as you think, here's an article talking about herd immunity in some NYC neighborhoods, without regard to t-cells [0] I agree that herd immunity, whenever it manifests, would be patchy. NYC is not the same as other cities in NY state as far as exposure, or all the small towns and rural areas in between, etc. I thought the paper on t-cells was interesting, in that the patchiness of covid impact around the world could partially be explained by prior coronavirus exposure, which would be expected to vary by region. [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/have-you-herd-new-york-might-have-immunitybut-please-dont-count-on-it-the-mayor-pleads-2020-08-21 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/have-you-herd-new-york-mig...
lhl 6y ago
The tests (LFA strips that basically work like pregnancy strips) were first developed back in February and have been modeled to be accurate enough with daily (and up to 3 day) testing to stop transmission in its tracks. Development has been slow on rapid tests since the FDA seems to not understand tests primarily for surveillance shouldn’t need to meet guidelines for diagnostic testing. For those interested in reading the preprint on the modeling: Larremore, Daniel B, Bryan Wilder, Evan Lester, Soraya Shehata, James M Burke, James A Hay, Milind Tambe, Michael J Mina, and Roy Parker. “Test Sensitivity Is Secondary to Frequency and Turnaround Time for COVID-19 Surveillance.” Preprint. Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS), June 25, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309. For nasal/saliva antigen point of need rapid tests, there are at least 4 different kinds being sold commercially outside of the US currently. The Indian MyLab Pathocatch is $6/test. For those interested in reading more about rapid testing, I’ve been putting together a document here: https://www.notion.so/lhl/COVID19-Preventing-Spread-and-Transmission-via-Frequent-Testing-5117e5e9a7914f4eb37f492365f368ea#77e719ff2ceb45b8ac9eab09221dcf92 https://www.notion.so/lhl/COVID19-Preventing-Spread-and-Tran...

by caryd 6y ago

zelphirkalt 6y ago

Number 3 makes me wonder: Do you think they have a lack of patients?! Why would we need any extra for testing?

aaron695 6y ago
You could do things like see if they can catch it from touch. Or 3 meters social distancing. Then when they get it you can do further tests, tracking everything from day of conception. All with top notch the best hospital care, so their risk would be similar overall as being in the community. I'd do it for fun, even without extra hospital care. Millions will die because of University ethics committees. [OT] I really like the Interrobang ‽I wish keyboards had it.
- hhas01 6y ago
  “Millions will die because of University ethics committees.” Uh-huh. https://www.cdc.gov/tuskegee/timeline.htm https://www.cdc.gov/tuskegee/timeline.htm
  - aaron695 6y ago
    I did wonder which of the two cliche examples would be pulled out ;) Also everything by Milgram, Pavlov, Zimbardo, Jane Elliott, Ron Jones, My favourite - Schachter and Singer (Misattribution of arousal) Basically anything classical you read about on HN about psychology no longer passes ethics.
    - hhas01 6y ago
      “cliche examples” Well that’s certainly a perspective.
- zelphirkalt 6y ago
  Interrobang ‽ has bad readability, in my opinion. Perhaps a capital letter P with a dot underneath would be better. I found many letters with "DOT BELOW" in charmap, but no "P".: ḄḅḌḍḤḥḲḳḶḷṂṃṆṇṚṛṢṣṬṭṾṿẈẉẒẓ It makes absolutely no sense to me, that there would be some characters with dots below, but not others, even of the latin alphabet. What?! Why?!

m0zg 6y ago

I argue #1 is still the _only_ realistic plan. And it hasn't changed, it's proceeding, whether we want it or not. Other countries which managed to "beat" the virus will join the rest later this fall. I hope they stockpiled enough PPE in the meanwhile. It ain't over until it's over. The virus is now endemic - it's not going anywhere. The only way out, besides a vaccine, which may or may not work, is to get the virus and acquire immunity (or die). People are just scared to admit it.

pvaldes 6y ago

> This was the plan. I'm starting to suspect that the real plan was killing as many poor people as possible, explaining the mass baths and stupid advices (cleaning masks with gasoline, go away and enjoy your tear gas, or drink poisons to poison the virus, and so...) > Why did it change? Because this plan leads to healthcare system collapsing as collateral damage, and this is an universal fear in all countries. If it collapses people that otherwise would recover, will die by lack of medical resources. And because it failed. After all those months we still are far from herd immunity, even if we had sacrificed thousands of elders in the way. > the best cure for any disease is to avoid the disease. That ship was sailed, for several reasons, and specially for some countries.

mikem170 6y ago
We may have already reached herd immunity in some locations, like northern Italy, NYC, etc - the places hardest hit so far, with many other places such as southern Florida on the way. This would be due to T-cell immunity conferred by prior coronavirus exposure, measured to exist in as much as 50% of the sample populations in replicated studies, lasting for up to 17 years. This is not reflected in the B-cell antibody tests being done. This also helps explain why different regions of the world were impacted differently - they had different histories of coronavirus exposures. Refer to https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9
- pvaldes 6y ago
  If we are reached herd immunity, why we have even more new cases than ever?. Herd immunity means that disease is unable to spread anymore, we can see that this is clearly not happening. Anybody can see this. What we are seeing in reality is a patched distribution or a model in mosaic, a case studied in ecology. Models predict in this case an infinite cycle of conquest and retreat that fits much better.
  - mikem170 6y ago
    The science around the evolution of this pandemic is still up in the air, but it's not as crazy an idea as you think, here's an article talking about herd immunity in some NYC neighborhoods, without regard to t-cells [0] I agree that herd immunity, whenever it manifests, would be patchy. NYC is not the same as other cities in NY state as far as exposure, or all the small towns and rural areas in between, etc. I thought the paper on t-cells was interesting, in that the patchiness of covid impact around the world could partially be explained by prior coronavirus exposure, which would be expected to vary by region. [0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/have-you-herd-new-york-might-have-immunitybut-please-dont-count-on-it-the-mayor-pleads-2020-08-21 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/have-you-herd-new-york-mig...

lhl 6y ago

The tests (LFA strips that basically work like pregnancy strips) were first developed back in February and have been modeled to be accurate enough with daily (and up to 3 day) testing to stop transmission in its tracks. Development has been slow on rapid tests since the FDA seems to not understand tests primarily for surveillance shouldn’t need to meet guidelines for diagnostic testing. For those interested in reading the preprint on the modeling: Larremore, Daniel B, Bryan Wilder, Evan Lester, Soraya Shehata, James M Burke, James A Hay, Milind Tambe, Michael J Mina, and Roy Parker. “Test Sensitivity Is Secondary to Frequency and Turnaround Time for COVID-19 Surveillance.” Preprint. Infectious Diseases (except HIV/AIDS), June 25, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309. For nasal/saliva antigen point of need rapid tests, there are at least 4 different kinds being sold commercially outside of the US currently. The Indian MyLab Pathocatch is $6/test. For those interested in reading more about rapid testing, I’ve been putting together a document here: https://www.notion.so/lhl/COVID19-Preventing-Spread-and-Transmission-via-Frequent-Testing-5117e5e9a7914f4eb37f492365f368ea#77e719ff2ceb45b8ac9eab09221dcf92 https://www.notion.so/lhl/COVID19-Preventing-Spread-and-Tran...