4 ms·

What we have here is a Sample, and in statistics (of which Polling is a discipline) you require a Randomized Sample of the Population before you can draw any me

by Alupis 6y ago

What we have here is a Sample, and in statistics (of which Polling is a discipline) you require a Randomized Sample of the Population before you can draw any meaningful conclusions. Telegram users are not going to pass any "Randomness" scrutiny. For all we know, Telegram User A asks Telegram User B to take the poll, etc. That's not random, and can introduce all sorts of statistical bias.

gbrown 6y ago
You’re ignoring the finite population and the actual numbers involved.
- kube-system 6y ago
  It is simultaneously possible for the results to have statistical issues while also being good enough to provide utility as evidence for drawing some conclusions. You can both be right.
  - gbrown 6y ago
    Indeed
thereare5lights 6y ago
What does that have to do with the fact that the number of telegram users that voted for the opposition candidate exceeds the official number of voters that voted for the opposition candidate?
- vbezhenar 6y ago
  Phone number is not an unique identifier. There are plenty of people who use multiple phone numbers. While I don't believe in Belarus official results, that Telegram evidence is not a real evidence. It's just a hint.
  - asutekku 6y ago
    I very highly doubt around double the amount of ”official” voters would have a second belarussian number.
    - tripzilch 6y ago
      Also, they have to decide to actually use that second number to cheat in a Telegram poll significantly more often than people of the other party. Otherwise you can only draw your error bars equally in both ways at once, and then they need to be pretty large before the numbers stop saying what they clearly are saying.
lrem 6y ago
What kind of a statistical bias would explain having 1 million Belariusian phone numbers claiming having voted for a candidate, that officially received around 0.5 million votes total?
- brain5ide 6y ago
  Adulthood necessary to vote could be one?

by Alupis 6y ago

gbrown 6y ago

You’re ignoring the finite population and the actual numbers involved.

kube-system 6y ago
It is simultaneously possible for the results to have statistical issues while also being good enough to provide utility as evidence for drawing some conclusions. You can both be right.
- gbrown 6y ago
  Indeed

thereare5lights 6y ago

What does that have to do with the fact that the number of telegram users that voted for the opposition candidate exceeds the official number of voters that voted for the opposition candidate?

vbezhenar 6y ago
Phone number is not an unique identifier. There are plenty of people who use multiple phone numbers. While I don't believe in Belarus official results, that Telegram evidence is not a real evidence. It's just a hint.
- asutekku 6y ago
  I very highly doubt around double the amount of ”official” voters would have a second belarussian number.
  - tripzilch 6y ago
    Also, they have to decide to actually use that second number to cheat in a Telegram poll significantly more often than people of the other party. Otherwise you can only draw your error bars equally in both ways at once, and then they need to be pretty large before the numbers stop saying what they clearly are saying.

lrem 6y ago

What kind of a statistical bias would explain having 1 million Belariusian phone numbers claiming having voted for a candidate, that officially received around 0.5 million votes total?

brain5ide 6y ago
Adulthood necessary to vote could be one?