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The fact that COVID is likely here to stay doesn't mean that there's no value in lockdowns or other countermeasures: - As time has gone on, we've learned more
by ryanbrunner 6y ago
The fact that COVID is likely here to stay doesn't mean that there's no value in lockdowns or other countermeasures:
- As time has gone on, we've learned more about the virus, how to prevent it and how to treat it, leading to a much lower fatality rate. If there were no lockdowns when New York City was facing the worst of the virus, the outcome would have been much, much worse. This trend is continuing, and there's no reason to assume that we won't continue to get better at treating it, so slowing the spread until it's less of a problem saves lives.
- Even assuming that we know everything there is to know about COVID, we will get no better at treating it, and vaccines aren't going to work, the best way that we DO know to handle outbreaks of COVID-19 (extensive contact tracing and quarantines) are impossible solutions in places like the U.S. where the infection rate is high enough to make contact tracing a pointless exercise.
- NoOneNew 6y agoExcept the lockdowns result in economic harm, causing folks to lose their jobs and sink them further into debt. And if it's only debt, then they're lucky. Suicide has been on the rise since the social isolation and lockdowns, then theres going to be more suicide due to ruined livelihoods as time goes on. People aren't poo-pooing the lockdowns because it's the chic thing to do. The impact is becoming worse than the virus itself. The WHO in January 2020 said with 80% compliance in social distancing and hygiene, the USA will have 2mil deaths by around july/august... yea, compliance was no where that high. This was all about flattening the curve so hospitals weren't overloaded at once, which was fair. We are past that. So much so, hospitals in the usa have been shutting down in summer because they haven't been able to fill beds. Something like this should have been able to keep them operating for longer if they were at constant capacity. I've said it before, 1 death is 1 too many. But at the same time, I dont see victory when the global society lives in perpetual fear and hardship either and decides to just kill themselves, literally. Right now global death numbers, covid doesn't make the top 10 causes of death in the world. You are statistically more likely to die of a diarrhea related illness than of covid. No one cries over the 2mil people, every year, dying of that. Which for the most part, is extremely preventable if the world community actually gave a shit.
- JoeAltmaier 6y agoThat sounds like 'winning'. Include the averted damage caused by unrestricted geometric growth in infections. Which is what we avoided. Sure its been tough. But not as tough as millions dead.
- NoOneNew 6y agoNo... the models were wrong in January, along with the constant fear mongering. The usa did not have 80% social distancing compliance. It was far less. Next part, is it still winning if more people commit suicide due to the countermeasures than the amount of deaths of covid? Or are you someone that believes less humans is good all around? I get hindsight will always be 20/20. But when do we all stop with the political fear mongering and adjust actions? Theres this weird moral high horse mentality in folks who are uber fearful of contracting covid.
- JoeAltmaier 6y agoLook here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... Click on US on the left; look at Daily Cases on the lower right. That's what we did - stopped geometric growth. Never mind models.
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