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The explanation that makes the most sense to me, from wiki: Yet another insight is that your chance of winning by switching doors is directly related to your c
by cbruns 6y ago
The explanation that makes the most sense to me, from wiki:
Yet another insight is that your chance of winning by switching doors is directly related to your chance of choosing the winning door in the first place: if you choose the correct door on your first try, then switching loses; if you choose a wrong door on your first try, then switching wins; your chance of choosing the correct door on your first try is 1/3, and the chance of choosing a wrong door is 2/3.
- JohnDeHope 6y agoThe bit that gets me... If he opens one door, which is a goat, so there is 1 goat and 1 prize remaining... then the chance should be 50% staying put or switching, right? That's the part that gets me. The whole bit about 3 doors and opening one of them and "do you want to switch" is all a ruse, it seems to me. At the end of the day there are two doors, one with a goat and one with a prize, and however you choose between 2 doors, you will win or lose 50% of the time. Right? Aargh the SAN loss...
- emiliobool 6y agoIt would only be 50-50 if you could only pick from 2 options, but your initial choice is between 3 options.