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The RideShareGuy is the most prominent blog for drivers and their annual survey seems to reflect that [1] >66% of drivers said they wanted to be independent co

The RideShareGuy is the most prominent blog for drivers and their annual survey seems to reflect that [1] >66% of drivers said they wanted to be independent contractors vs 15.8% who wanted to be an employee [1] https://therideshareguy.com/uber-driver-survey/ https://therideshareguy.com/uber-driver-survey/

shanemhansen 6y ago
There's lots of ways to lie with surveys, I wonder what the exact wording was and what the responses would be to variants such as: 1. Do you want to be CEO of your own company or a peon employee? 2. Do you want uber to set your hours? 3. Do you want medical, vacation days, or unemployment insurance? For some people these are all basically the same questions. For most folks, I don't think they are.
- haberman 6y ago
  > When we polled drivers about their preference between remaining an independent contractor or becoming an employee, an overwhelming number of drivers wanted to remain independent. > "What type of employment relationship would you like to have with rideshare companies" > (A) I don't know the difference: 3.3% > (B) I'd like to be an employee: 20.8% > (C) I'd like to be an independent contractor: 75.9% https://therideshareguy.com/california-sues-uber-and-lyft-for-misclassifying-workers/ https://therideshareguy.com/california-sues-uber-and-lyft-fo...
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - kelnos 6y ago
    Is 734 out of a population of 80,000 a representative sample? And even if it is, are the 80,000 people on their mailing list a representative sample of all drivers? Not saying they aren't, but I... just don't know.
    - notafraudster 6y ago
      "Representativeness" has to do with the process of sampling, not the sample size -- a sample of one is in fact a representative sample of the population in the sense of being unbiased for the quantity of interest. Here's a simple anecdote: suppose you want to measure how often a coin comes up heads. The true answer is 50% heads. If your "sample" is a single coin flip, the answer will always be 100% or 0% (both wrong answers!). Maybe you do this experiment and get 100% and I do it and get 0%. But since the magnitude of the error will be the same on either side, on average across many repetitions of the experiment (this is called a "sampling distribution") we'll get the right answer. What adding additional sample size does is reduce the variance of the estimated statistic -- that is to say reduce the degree to which the estimate of the parameter moves around across samples. If I flip the coin 100 times and you flip the coin 100 times, we're both likely to get very close answers to one another. The bigger concern here is not sample size, it's whether the sampling was random (it was not) and whether the sample frame -- the population from which they were sampling -- matches the population of interest (it does not, as you suggest in your post, so your instincts here are good!). There is very little reason to believe the people who chose to reply to the email are as-if random with respect to the question being asked. Rather, I would expect diehards of RideShareGuy (who likely converge on RSG's approximate editorial position on this issue) are more likely to reply. There is also likely to be confounding based on age, hours worked per week, geographical location in the country, etc. There is also very little reason to believe RideShareGuy's mailing list represents rideshare drivers as a whole; again, selection based on age, tech savvy, English competency, SES, geographic location, etc. all likely to be confounders. If this were a classical random sample of a valid sample frame, the parameter of interest would have a classical margin of error +- 3.6%, which is small compared to the overall story being told. This speaks to your concern. A simple rule of thumb is that classical MOEs are +- 1/sqrt(n) where n is the sample size. This comment is too long so I won't get into the derivation here. I actually think this question presents a lot of interesting problems for a survey statistician. In particular, I would guess there is extreme subgroup heterogeneity -- that is to say there are classes of people who overwhelmingly want to be contractors and classes of people who overwhelmingly want to be employees. My guess would be that the population-wide parameter is of little interest compared to identifying those groups. If we discovered that, say, every person above 40 hours a week wanted to be an employee and every person below wanted to be a contractor, it'd be an error to present a weighted average of the groups versus exploring policy solutions that reflect that heterogeneity.
- renewiltord 6y ago
  Very curious about this trend I've seen on HN where instead of going to the primary source, commenters will take 2x the time to hypothesize about what the primary source could contain. In this particular case it was so easy that it really makes me wonder. I can think of a couple of reasons: * Uncertainty with where in the primary source the content is * Concern that you're being Gish Galloped with citations * Lack of skill at skimming Anyway, the source is particularly weird with the way it links to things and stuff but it wasn't that hard to find. I went through it and then decided to screen record the interaction afterwards. It's my second time going through but not that different from the first. Using headlines, pull quotes, and pictures as the things I'm aiming for, I got there in 30 s. I think your comment would have taken longer for me to have written than 30 s. https://gfycat.com/rashwholeindianjackal https://gfycat.com/rashwholeindianjackal
  - mediaman 6y ago
    There's a psychological reward to having other people read what you write, and possibly getting upvotes. This reward exceeds the reward from learning the actual information. Many platforms are plagued by people more interested in being heard than learning facts.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
LegitShady 6y ago
The secret is that your status has nothing to do with what you want but the terms of employment. It doesn't matter if 100% of them want to be contractors the judge just ruled it doesn't count as contractors by law. If Uber wants contractors they need to make sure the terms of their employment follow the law, including classification.
CogitoCogito 6y ago
Assuming that poll is representative of the drivers' will at large, I guess then hopefully Uber and Lyft can satisfy these drivers by following the regulations required for them to be classified as independent contractors.
- fidelramos 6y ago
  There is another way: laws should allow people and companies to determine their own terms for collaboration, instead of meddling with their freedom of association.
  - CogitoCogito 6y ago
    Nothing is keeping Uber and Lyft from determining their own terms. However, the terms they choose affect the taxes they pay and the benefits they provide. If they want certain terms, then they need to accept the regulations that come with them. So I guess I'm not really sure what your point is. Is your point that companies shouldn't be required to follow labor/tax law? What's the difference between this and saying that you don't want to pay payroll taxes on employees? Or that you want to pay a lower rate? Or that you don't want to pay import taxes or that you don't want to follow required laws in what you may put in the products you sell? What exactly makes Uber and Lyft so special that they should get to choose what rules they are to follow?

shanemhansen 6y ago

There's lots of ways to lie with surveys, I wonder what the exact wording was and what the responses would be to variants such as: 1. Do you want to be CEO of your own company or a peon employee? 2. Do you want uber to set your hours? 3. Do you want medical, vacation days, or unemployment insurance? For some people these are all basically the same questions. For most folks, I don't think they are.

haberman 6y ago
> When we polled drivers about their preference between remaining an independent contractor or becoming an employee, an overwhelming number of drivers wanted to remain independent. > "What type of employment relationship would you like to have with rideshare companies" > (A) I don't know the difference: 3.3% > (B) I'd like to be an employee: 20.8% > (C) I'd like to be an independent contractor: 75.9% https://therideshareguy.com/california-sues-uber-and-lyft-for-misclassifying-workers/ https://therideshareguy.com/california-sues-uber-and-lyft-fo...
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- kelnos 6y ago
  Is 734 out of a population of 80,000 a representative sample? And even if it is, are the 80,000 people on their mailing list a representative sample of all drivers? Not saying they aren't, but I... just don't know.
  - notafraudster 6y ago
    "Representativeness" has to do with the process of sampling, not the sample size -- a sample of one is in fact a representative sample of the population in the sense of being unbiased for the quantity of interest. Here's a simple anecdote: suppose you want to measure how often a coin comes up heads. The true answer is 50% heads. If your "sample" is a single coin flip, the answer will always be 100% or 0% (both wrong answers!). Maybe you do this experiment and get 100% and I do it and get 0%. But since the magnitude of the error will be the same on either side, on average across many repetitions of the experiment (this is called a "sampling distribution") we'll get the right answer. What adding additional sample size does is reduce the variance of the estimated statistic -- that is to say reduce the degree to which the estimate of the parameter moves around across samples. If I flip the coin 100 times and you flip the coin 100 times, we're both likely to get very close answers to one another. The bigger concern here is not sample size, it's whether the sampling was random (it was not) and whether the sample frame -- the population from which they were sampling -- matches the population of interest (it does not, as you suggest in your post, so your instincts here are good!). There is very little reason to believe the people who chose to reply to the email are as-if random with respect to the question being asked. Rather, I would expect diehards of RideShareGuy (who likely converge on RSG's approximate editorial position on this issue) are more likely to reply. There is also likely to be confounding based on age, hours worked per week, geographical location in the country, etc. There is also very little reason to believe RideShareGuy's mailing list represents rideshare drivers as a whole; again, selection based on age, tech savvy, English competency, SES, geographic location, etc. all likely to be confounders. If this were a classical random sample of a valid sample frame, the parameter of interest would have a classical margin of error +- 3.6%, which is small compared to the overall story being told. This speaks to your concern. A simple rule of thumb is that classical MOEs are +- 1/sqrt(n) where n is the sample size. This comment is too long so I won't get into the derivation here. I actually think this question presents a lot of interesting problems for a survey statistician. In particular, I would guess there is extreme subgroup heterogeneity -- that is to say there are classes of people who overwhelmingly want to be contractors and classes of people who overwhelmingly want to be employees. My guess would be that the population-wide parameter is of little interest compared to identifying those groups. If we discovered that, say, every person above 40 hours a week wanted to be an employee and every person below wanted to be a contractor, it'd be an error to present a weighted average of the groups versus exploring policy solutions that reflect that heterogeneity.
renewiltord 6y ago
Very curious about this trend I've seen on HN where instead of going to the primary source, commenters will take 2x the time to hypothesize about what the primary source could contain. In this particular case it was so easy that it really makes me wonder. I can think of a couple of reasons: * Uncertainty with where in the primary source the content is * Concern that you're being Gish Galloped with citations * Lack of skill at skimming Anyway, the source is particularly weird with the way it links to things and stuff but it wasn't that hard to find. I went through it and then decided to screen record the interaction afterwards. It's my second time going through but not that different from the first. Using headlines, pull quotes, and pictures as the things I'm aiming for, I got there in 30 s. I think your comment would have taken longer for me to have written than 30 s. https://gfycat.com/rashwholeindianjackal https://gfycat.com/rashwholeindianjackal
- mediaman 6y ago
  There's a psychological reward to having other people read what you write, and possibly getting upvotes. This reward exceeds the reward from learning the actual information. Many platforms are plagued by people more interested in being heard than learning facts.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

LegitShady 6y ago

The secret is that your status has nothing to do with what you want but the terms of employment. It doesn't matter if 100% of them want to be contractors the judge just ruled it doesn't count as contractors by law. If Uber wants contractors they need to make sure the terms of their employment follow the law, including classification.

CogitoCogito 6y ago

Assuming that poll is representative of the drivers' will at large, I guess then hopefully Uber and Lyft can satisfy these drivers by following the regulations required for them to be classified as independent contractors.

fidelramos 6y ago
There is another way: laws should allow people and companies to determine their own terms for collaboration, instead of meddling with their freedom of association.
- CogitoCogito 6y ago
  Nothing is keeping Uber and Lyft from determining their own terms. However, the terms they choose affect the taxes they pay and the benefits they provide. If they want certain terms, then they need to accept the regulations that come with them. So I guess I'm not really sure what your point is. Is your point that companies shouldn't be required to follow labor/tax law? What's the difference between this and saying that you don't want to pay payroll taxes on employees? Or that you want to pay a lower rate? Or that you don't want to pay import taxes or that you don't want to follow required laws in what you may put in the products you sell? What exactly makes Uber and Lyft so special that they should get to choose what rules they are to follow?